Ocean Cycles

The ocean cycles play very important roles in regulating global temperatures. The two primary cycles are the Atlantic Multidecadal and Pacific Decadal Oscillations (i.e.: the AMO and PDO). The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans cycle between hot and cold over a period of 60 – 65 years. Note they are not moving in unison despite similar cycle times. The AMO is just beginning to turn down to go into a cooling phase. The PDO has already entered its cool phase. The indexes for both (pulled from Wikipedia) are included below.

The plot below superimposes the AMO and PDO on the HadCRUT4 and UAH temperature data sets. One thing that should jump off the page is the correlation between the AMO and the early HadCRUT4 data (pre-satellite) combined with the UAH satellite data. The satellite period HadCRUT4 data deviates from the correlation and the UAH data. Most of that deviation is remarkably similar to the temperature values that have been added by the homogenization process. Hmm…

In an earlier portion of the discussion, I pointed out that the only period where CO₂ appears to correlate well with the global temperatures is between 1970 and 2000. As I mentioned in that discussion, not all of the temperature rise was due to increasing CO₂ concentrations. The AMO and PDO would have also contributed to the rising temperatures during that period. Based on the correlation between AMO and the pre-satellite HadCRUT4 data combined with the UAH data, you could argue that CO₂ was not much of a contributing factor during the 1970 – 2000 period. The AMO appears to be a dominant factor throughout the last 1.5 centuries.

The same temperature data can be plotted against the solar activity with similar results. The solar activity correlates well with the pre-satellite HadCRUT4 data combined with the UAH satellite data. The declining solar activity since 2000 (with help from the declining PDO) may have been enough to keep global temperatures flat since 2000. Solar activity is forecasted to decline quickly and dramatically over the next decade or two. Declining solar activity is going to be the real “Climate Change” problem and right now we are ignoring the problem politically and economically. A big mistake in my opinion.

As shown on the previous page, the AMO had a better correlation with the same temperatures. The period from 1940 – 1970 was characterized by declining global temperatures (using the HadCRUT4 data). Remember the coming ice age scare being promoted during the 1970’s. The solar activity was flat through this period and the CO₂ concentrations were continuously rising yet the temperature still went down. Coincidentally, the AMO was declining through this period. Just one more indication that CO₂ is not a significant climate driver.