Disappearing Arctic Ice
This is a quick look at the ice situation in the Arctic. The reports you’ll hear on mainstream media (MSM) tell us that the ice is disappearing and will soon be gone. And if you look at the ice extent graph from NSIDC to the right, you could be forgiven for just accepting that false reality. Yes, the ice extent (this year) is lower by roughly 0.588 million square kilometers (only 8.6% below the interdecile range). However, that is only a small part of the story.
The ice “volumes” as of August 8th, 2018 are actually at the top of the normal range. They are also well above the 2016 and 2017 el Nino affected years and higher than 2012 and 2008 years (as shown in the three charts from Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)). The ice extent can easily fluctuate due to the effects of ocean currents and strong winds (as well as the time of year). Bottom line there is still lots of ice left in the Arctic. And guess what it is still very cold overall in Greenland and the Arctic. Did you know that an all-time Northern Hemisphere July cold record was measured at the Summit in Greenland on July 4th, 2017. This middle of the summer -33 °C record beat the old record by 2.3 °C.
The risk of Greenland melting anytime soon is very low (especially given that we are headed into a Grand Solar Minimum). In fact, the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) in Greenland has been increasing (i.e.: more ice by Giga tonnes/day) at higher than average levels for the past 19 months. The ice increases were well above the normal range throughout the 2016-17 period.
Overall, the arctic sea ice data does not indicate that we are going to have any ice free summers any time soon. Certainly not by 2013 as Al Gore so ominously suggested. And again, CO2 is not controlling arctic sea ice extent. The sea ice extent has been fluctuating both above and below “normal”, CO2 concentrations are not fluctuating up and down (apart from the yearly seasonal cycles).
The 2017-18 SMB is continuing to diverge from the average because the temperatures in Greenland are colder than normal and the ice is melting more slowly as a result. Interestingly, DMI has stopped displaying the 2016-17 data (a year with SMB gains above the average range) but still display the 2011-12 data (a year where the SMB went below the average range (during the melt season)). I added in the 2016-17 SMB data. In my opinion, to be fair both extremes should be shown or neither extreme should shown.
The above chart clearly shows, the temperatures during the Arctic melt season have been below normal (barely above freezing) for virtually the entire melt season to date. Obviously, arctic ice will not be disappearing over the remaining one month of the 2018 melt season.
As an aside, the ice thickness in areas around Baffin Island (highlighted in red to the left) is still greater than 5.0 meters (greater than 16.4 feet). Those thick ice areas have been building up over the last decade (as per the links on the previous page. Interesting, because Baffin Island is where the last Great Ice Age was initiated. Let’s hope it’s not already starting again.
Hudson Bay has had a significant ice problem this year. Normally the ice is gone by the end of July (as shown in the lower map). This year they had to bring in ice breakers at the end of July to get supplies to the northern communities. The top map shows the deviation from normal. Still lots of ice considering it’s the middle of summer.