How Bad Are the Canadian Climate Models?

OPS-70 Real bad, close to the worst of a whole lot of bad models. All those models were reviewed in my CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models post. The Canadian models showed badly in that post. In reality, I was being kind. Canada, like every other country is still using the implausible ssp585 emission scenario. Canada’s “climate scientists” just appear to be more willing to push their ideological window further open than most. The Canadian models are obviously just designed to push the alarmist viewpoint, since they appear to have made no attempt to match the observed temperatures.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The Canadian Model projections began deviating significantly from the observed Lower Troposphere temperatures before the turn of the century. Somewhere in the last 25 years, you would think that they might have started making some adjustments. There is obviously room for improvement. So, what does that tell us about the whole process? Canada is not alone in their total neglect of basic scientific and simulation principles. They came in second to the UK (who were the furthest from reality). Only the two Russian models and one (of six) Chinese modelling groups even came close to the observed satellite Lower Troposphere temperature measurements. Note, these types of evaluations have been done before (most notably by Drs. John Christy and Roy Spencer from the University of Alabama, Huntsville). The plots I am presenting here have updated their work and added in the NOAA-STAR satellite and HadCRUT5 surface temperature datasets for some additional context.

The NOAA-STAR data was recently recalibrated and like the radiosonde (weather balloon) data now corroborates the UAH measurements. That topic was discussed in detail in my CSS-40 – Satellite Temperature Comparisons post. The UAH data has always been the most accurate global temperature representation. This is just one more confirmation. To be fair I have also included the HadCRUT5 surface temperature dataset. The HadCRUT5 data is not directly comparable (since the projections are Lower Troposphere focused), but the overall surface trends would be similar to the LT trends (but still well below just about all the inflated IPCC projections). The attached bar chart (restricted to just the ssp245 “reasonable” emission scenario) shows the modelers ineptitude. Every projection is higher than the observed UAH and NOAA-STAR satellite data (although as mentioned earlier, three are close). And 29 of the 36 projections are higher (most significantly) than the “homogenized” (i.e.: manipulated) HadCRUT5 surface data estimates. Remember, all the modeling groups are still using emission scenarios that are much more aggressive than the ssp245 one shown here. So, yes, the models run too hot as they have acknowledged.

In my opinion, these unsubstantiated, unscientific “models” are almost solely responsible for the current idiotological drive to reduce “carbon” (CO₂ specifically) emissions (the attack on our energy security) and more recently the attack on our agricultural needs (meat, fertilizer, etc.). These unnecessary “green” initiatives are quickly taking our society down a path toward economic suicide. These policies will kill millions around the world with no net measurable benefit to the climate.  There is no Climate Emergency (at least not from the mild warming CO₂ might provide). There are no empirical CO₂/Temperature datasets showing CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. There is also no net environmental benefit to renewables once the impact on our planet’s biosphere is considered (widespread death of fauna from insects/bats/birds to whales, landscapes that will be razed to supply the required rare minerals, etc.). And despite the trillions spent to date, there has been no noticeable effect on atmospheric CO₂ growth (regardless of political affiliation)!

The push for NetZero, the Green New Deal, ESG and every other stupid “green” initiative needs to be sidelined. That does not happen until the general public wakes up, stands up to and votes out the ideologs that run our countries on behalf of the UN/WEF and their agendas. There are real environmental problems to address. CO₂ emissions are not one of them.

Here are some additional articles/papers/posts that provide further context to this discussion.

Dr. Roy Spencer – CMIP6 Models

50-Year U.S. Summer Temperature Trends: ALL 36 Climate Models Are Too Warm

Then THEY Came For Me

Interview Links (Audio and Visual)

There is NO Climate Emergency

Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL) climate change and climate policy

Clintel Climate Intelligence

Climate Short Story (CSS)

CSS-6 – John Christy – January 2021

John Christy – January 2021

CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models

CMIP6 Climate Models

CSS-40 – Satellite Temperature Comparisons

Satellite Temperature Comparisons