TSI versus Global Temperature
This post addresses one of the All CO2, All the Time alarmists’ favorite charts, Global Mean Temperature (GMT) and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) over the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present). Why is this chart a favorite? Around 1970, during the ‘Ice Age is Coming Scare’, the GMT and TSI data began diverging. GMT rose, TSI leveled out and began gradually declining more recently. These charts are often based on real data sets, but they lack a lot of context and display the lack of scientific knowledge/integrity of anyone posting a version of the plot.
#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata
Note, the opening paragraph above and the wrap-up discussion below were pulled from a far more detailed discussion (attached PDF) on the relationship between solar activity and global temperatures. The PDF overview discussion summarizes, in detail, the step by step building slides included with this post.
To summarize, there is a lot more to solar forcing than Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)! The deviation between surface temperature data sets and some choices of solar activity (as represented by just Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)) are real possibilities. But those options do not begin to reflect all the possibilities. There are also questions attached to the surface temperature data (i.e.: homogenized (data manipulation) versus valid measured temperatures, satellite versus surface temperature data, the Urban Heat Island Effect, quality of data, etc.). But we do not need to delve into those uncertainties in detail here. Most if not all the deviations can be explained by NOT ignoring the many solar forcings (direct and indirect) over and above the TSI reconstructions used in these simplistic memes.
We can start with more powerful TSI reconstructions and add in Cosmic Ray Flux/Cloud Albedo/Sunshine Hours, solar wind and magnetic field strength, High Energy Particles (HEP), Solar Flares/Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), etc. We can then follow up with indirect solar forcings, the many atmospheric and oceanic cycles (discussed by Dr. Joseph Fournier in his informative SubStack) that produce our weather. None of these forcings are handled properly (if at all) in the IPCC climate models. Those very same models that have been self-acknowledged to run too hot and regularly use implausible emission scenarios as their business-as-usual case (RCP7.0/ssp3-7.0 and RCP8.5/ssp5-8.5, officially retired). Taking these emission scenarios out also takes out the Climate Emergency/Crisis/Apocalypse/Next Scary Descriptor scenarios.
Volcanism is also overlooked or downplayed. The IPCC ‘best estimates’ include the aerosol induced cooling associated with volcanic eruptions. But they do not include the warming associated with submarine volcanoes (like Hunga-Tonga-Hunga) that inject large volumes of water into the stratosphere producing a warming effect. Nor do they include the additional heat injection associated with the increased seismicity and associated volcanism along the Pacific Ring of Fire and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. There are many peer reviewed, published papers/studies that link solar activity to the ENSO Ocean cycle. And there is empirical data that shows a correlation between global seismicity and global temperatures. These volcanic forcings are indirectly related to the sun through the gravitational and electromagnetic interactions present throughout the solar system and beyond. This post does not cover all the solar forcings given my lack of resources. But given the billions of dollars and time our climate scientists have wasted you would think they could have put more effort into studying solar activity’s potential effects rather than just dismissing them.
CSS-71 – IPCC Model/Theory Shortcomings – Revisited
CSS-82 Building a Better More Realistic Climate Model
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023640
Relationship between sunshine duration and air temperature and contemporary global warming – Matuszko, D. et al 2014
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269727866_Relationship_between_sunshine_duration_and_air_temperature_and_contemporary_global_warming
The long-term course of the annual total sunshine duration in Europe and changes in the phases of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (1901–2018). – Andrzej, M. et al 2023
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374982179_The_long-term_course_of_the_annual_total_sunshine_duration_in_Europe_and_changes_in_the_phases_of_the_thermohaline_circulation_in_the_North_Atlantic_1901-2018
Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records – Scafetta, N. 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023640
Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023 – Spencer, R. et al 2025
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/391311079_Urban_Heat_Island_Effects_in_US_Summer_Surface_Temperature_Data_1895-2023
CSS-71 – IPCC Model/Theory Shortcomings – Revisited
CSS-74 – Climate Tipping Points
CSS-79 – A Commonsense Look at ‘Climate Change’
CSS-82 Building a Better More Realistic Climate Model
For more perspective and more detailed analysis, you can also check out some of the following posts which are back up for the points discussed in this post.
Shifting Plates, Shifting Poles, Shifting Paradigms – Arthur Viterito
IPCC Working Group 1 (WG1) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Annex III Extended Data
https://zenodo.org/records/5705391
“Burgess Oceanic-Solar-CO2 Index Follow-Up” | Tom Nelson Pod #375
Explaining Every Temperature Change from 1983 to 2025 – Burgess paper
https://substack.com/home/post/p-182701114
Solar Forcing of ENSO on Century Timescales – Wilcox et al 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105201
ENSO Index Variations and Links with Solar and Volcanic Activity – Zharkova et al 2024
https://www.scirp.org/pdf/ns2024164_18303679.pdf
The Long-Term Course of the Annual Total Sunshine Duration in Europe and Changes in the Phases of the Thermohaline Circulation in the North Atlantic (1901–2018) – Marsz, A. et al 2023
Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850 – Connolly Soon et al 2023 (CSS-51)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e
Relationship between sunshine duration and temperature trends across Europe since the second half of the twentieth century – van den Besselaar, E.J.M. et al 2015
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023640
Relationship between sunshine duration and air temperature and contemporary global warming – Matuszko, D. et al 2014
The long-term course of the annual total sunshine duration in Europe and changes in the phases of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (1901–2018). – Andrzej, M. et al 2023
Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records – Scafetta, N. 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023640
Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023 – Spencer, R. et al 2025
The Total Greenhouse Effect: Clouds plus Clear Sky Greenhouse Gases – Dr. Joseph Fournier
https://josephfournier.substack.com/p/the-total-greenhouse-effect-clouds
When the Tropics Stretch Poleward: The Hidden Mechanism Behind a Warming North and a Greening Sahel – Dr. Joseph Fournier
https://josephfournier.substack.com/p/when-the-tropics-stretch-poleward
Climate Short Story (CSS)
CSS-36 – Solar Flares and CMEs
CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings
CSS-69 – CO2’s Cooling Parameters
CSS-71 – IPCC’s Model/Theory Shortcomings
CSS-71 – IPCC’s Model/Theory Shortcomings – Revisited
CSS-74 – Climate Tipping Points
CSS-75 – Solar Forcing Discussion
CSS-78 – Weakening Electromagnetic Field
CSS-79 – A Common Sense Look at ‘Climate Change’
CSS-82 – A Better, More Realistic Climate Model
https://climatechangeandmusic.com/building-a-better-more-realistic-climate-model
One Page Political Summary (OPPS)
OPPS-20 – Why Are We Putting All of Our Eggs in One Basket?
OPPS-33 – What Happens After Net Zero?
One Page Summary (OPS)
OPS-80 – CO2 Affects Temperature but Does CO2 Drive Climate?
