A Ride Through The Cenozoic

CSS-10 I was quite excited to find a good, detailed data set that fills the hole between the 800,000-year ice core data and the Berner/Scotese 570-million-year Phanerozoic time frame. The Westerhold et al’s September 2020 data provides a detailed picture of the 66-million-year Cenozoic period using deep-sea benthic foraminifera analysis to come up with carbon and oxygen isotope ratios representing temperature (δO₁₈=O₁₈/O₁₆) and CO₂ concentrations (δC₁₃=C₁₃/C₁₂). I soon realized that the One Page Summary (OPS) that I had planned would not be nearly enough. The δO₁₈ is directly convertible to temperature, but the δC₁₃ is more complicated. Luckily that work has been done by other researchers (including Westerhold). I just do not have access to that data. I was also able to find the Phanerozoic data which is included. So, what does the data show on this time scale? Once again, there is no overall CO₂ correlation with the many climate changes that are present during the Cenozoic period. I did my best to summarize the Cenozoic in the first two slides, but I would suggest that the detail will provide more context for the upfront summary.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The Cenozoic climate appears to be divided into six stable climate periods that are separated by catastrophic and/or major geological transformations that could have very abrupt or more gradual implications. During those stable climate periods, temperatures stayed within a relatively tight range while CO₂ concentrations varied significantly. The main impetus for major climate change appears to be the geological events that initiated or terminated major ocean currents. A few celestial impacts and major volcanic intrusions helped those step changes between stable climate periods along. The underlying driver over the Cenozoic period is a cooling effect related to rising cosmic ray flux. Over the Phanerozoic, our planet has entered into deep ice ages every 150 million years as our planet passes through the spiral arms of our Milky Way Galaxy. Cosmic ray flux is much higher within the arms (an area of high-density stars) than the relatively empty spaces in between.  We entered that ice age around 34 million years ago and have continually stepped down to ever colder temperatures. Chemical rock weathering also plays a minor role (over very long periods of time) by reducing CO₂ levels (causing minor, slow cooling). However, CO₂’s influence is still subject to the strength/dominance of the other major climate drivers in the real world. Or in the computer modeling’s virtual reality, you can (and they do) make CO₂ responsible for virtually all climate change and ultimately the cause of virtually all of society’s problems. Ignoring the empirical data is a dangerous, unscientific principle but it sure does help to keep the narrative going.

CO₂’s performance on this time scale adds another component to my CSS-7 – CO₂ – the FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas post. CO₂ has no observable role in the major climate changes. During the stable climate periods, CO₂ is probably playing the same typical role that is present in the Pleistocene ice core data. Over the last 800,000 years, temperatures have been rising and falling in line with the Milankovitch cycles. When those temperatures rise, CO₂ is liberated from the oceans, increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels. When the temperatures decline, CO₂ is reabsorbed by the oceans and atmospheric CO₂ levels drop. Those Milankovitch cycles (or some version thereof) would be present throughout our planet’s history. An interesting point comes out of these fluctuations. The natural forces that generate those temperature and CO₂ fluctuations are more than enough to account for the CO₂ changes throughout the vast majority of the Cenozoic. A typical δO₁₈ over the ice core data was pasted throughout this CSS. All the δC₁₃/CO₂ fluctuations within the stable climate periods are well within the range of Temperature induced δC₁₃/CO₂ changes. Separating out any CO₂ induced temperature changes would be exceedingly difficult.

The idea that we are entering a new epoch (the Anthropocene) is laughable. We are, thankfully living through the Holocene interglacial warm period but we are still firmly entrenched in the Pleistocene Ice Age and will be for millions of years into the future. Regardless of the effects of CO₂, the other major climate drivers will push our planet back into a deep ice age. We probably have thousands of years before that happens but there are many potential triggers that could bring on a deep ice age much sooner. In the short term, we need to worry more about our current move into a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) which sets us up for a new Little Ice Age (LIA)) like the LIA we again, thankfully had just moved out of. GSMs are not kind to humanity and this GSM will be no different.

Unfortunately, there are many factors that are pushing us colder right now. All the Milankovitch cycle drivers (Eccentricity, delayed Obliquity, Precession and Insolation) are headed colder. The Insolation is getting ready to move up marginally a few centuries from now which might be enough to hold off the deep ice age for a few thousand years. As mentioned earlier, solar activity (already dropping gradually) is expected to accelerate significantly as we move further into the GSM (taking temperatures down with it). Ocean cycles are currently compounding the GSM cooling (with the powerful Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and el Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) all entering or in their cool phases). Volcanism also compounds the cooling problem by introducing aerosols into the atmosphere. The current uptick in volcanic activity (common during GSMs) will be adding to the cooling and could become very significant and dangerous if we have a major eruption or two. You can throw Bill Gates into the discussion here with his idiotic geo-engineering aerosol proposal. Mother Nature will not need any help from us to cool the planet.

And then we have the major triggers that could change things for the worse on very short notice. The Beaufort Gyre (a major source of cold, fresher water circulating in the Beaufort sea) is a major trigger for colder temperatures when that cold fresh water releases into the North Atlantic. We are overdue for that release. Another major cold trigger is caused when large volumes of ice migrate from the poles towards the equatorial regions. Those big icebergs breaking off from Antarctica are not good for the CAGW alarmist narrative. There has also been some speculation that major ocean current changes may occur soon. If the Thermohaline Circulation or Gulf Stream were to shut down, the problem would be cooling not warming as the heat transport to the North Atlantic gets cut-off. And you can always go down the rabbit hole of real climate catastrophe. There is evidence that the sun goes through a micro-nova event every 12,000 years. That event is extinction level (obliterating the planet with vaporizing heat, then bombarding the planet with the material blasted off the sun’s surface, only to be followed by an ice age almost immediately) and that event is due within the next few decades. Compare that to “Climate Change” as envisioned by the CAGW alarmist narrative. “Global Warming” is not even a minor threat, let alone an existential threat. Climate Change (through Global Cooling) is the real and near-term existential threat that our pathetic leaders are currently ignoring.

When I set out to review the Temperature/CO₂ relationship over the Cenozoic, an interesting influence made the direct comparison between δO₁₈ (temperature) and CO₂ difficult. Prior to the sharp drop in temperatures 34 million years ago that initiated Antarctic Glaciation, the planet was dominated by C3 plant types (think tropical depictions of the Cretaceous or Jurassic as examples). As the temperatures and CO₂ levels dropped coming off the Eocene Climate Optimum, C4 plants (think savannahs and Prairie scenes, kelp, etc.) started developing and began having significant impacts when Antarctic Glaciation kicked in. C4 plants are more efficient and hardier in lower temperature and lower atmospheric CO₂ conditions. C3 plants have a hard time processing the C₁₃ isotope. When conditions (rising CO₂ or warm temperatures) promote C3 plant growth, the C₁₃/δC₁₃ tends to rise and generally moves in opposite directions to the δO₁₈ (i.e.: temperature). Prior to Antarctic Glaciation, δC₁₃ and CO₂ also generally moved in opposite directions. Post-Initial Antarctic Glaciation, C4 plants dominated and Temperature, δC₁₃ and CO₂ all started moving in general unison as they do now. Looking at the data on a long time scale like this, shows that CO₂ will never correlate with temperature over the entire interval. There are too many significant (both isolated and cyclical) events that break up the data. When you focus in on stable time periods, CO₂/Temperature correlations can be seen, but those correlations all appear to fall within the normal range of temperature induced CO₂ changes. Also, the causations are still open to interpretation (as discussed earlier and shown in more detail in the CSS). Cruising through the Cenozoic was interesting (in my opinion) and once again shows just how complicated the climate system really is. The CAGW alarmist narrative that CO₂ is virtually the only driver that can move the climate (as per their model’s programming, OPS-22 – Climate Models – Real Simple) is simplistic and if the outcomes were not so dangerous, they would be laughable. As I did with my Open Letter, I just presented the data, went through the data, gave my opinions, and I encourage the reader to come to their own conclusions.