The PAUSE

OPS-56 This post has a quick look at the UAH satellite temperature data and the relationships between average global temperature and the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The correlation is shaky at best. CO₂ rises steadily (with a small seasonal variation), the global temperature, not so much. There is obviously more going on than just the simple, unscientific Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) Narrative. Even on this short time scale, the temperatures fluctuate significantly (almost as much as that scary 1.07 °C the IPCC has estimated the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the Present) Warming to be). For a thought exercise, let us assume that CO₂ was responsible for all the warming over this period (December 1978 to October 2021). The overall trend over the satellite period is just 1.35 °C/century. As the CO₂ concentration rises, that trend will only get smaller. Even if the trend stayed at 1.35 °C/century, that would be a beneficial, not a dangerous warming.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

That seems to be an ongoing trend this year. In late July, the IPCC computer modellers finally admitted that their models were running way too hot. Gavin Schmidt (Director at NASA-GISS) summed up the state of climate modelling as “insanely scary and wrong”. More detail in the AAAS article and/or my last post (OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science). The IPCC also piled on in their August AR6 Report, taking the routinely described business-as-usual emission case (RCP 8.5) off the table with a low likelihood of ever happening. Detailed work by Roger Pielke Jr. has shown that the RCP8.5 emission scenario is highly implausible. With the models running too hot and the IPCC’s higher emission cases coming in as highly implausible, the warming from CO₂ (even if the IPCC science was correct) is again beneficial not dangerous. Kind of hard to argue that the IPCC science is correct when the models are running way too hot.

On a more basic level, the IPCC has stated that their best estimate warming over the last 171 years has been 1.07 °C. That works out to 0.63 °C/century. The models are programmed to essentially respond linearly to CO₂ (OPS-22 – Computer Models – Real Simple), when, the true response is an exponentially declining function (based on historical estimates). And an even sharper decline when based on satellite measurements of the energy released back to space. More detail in my CSS-7 – CO₂ – The FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas post. CO₂’s warming capacity will be lower in the future. Again, leading to beneficial, not dangerous warming.

Now, let us move away from the thought exercise and back to the real world, where the many other natural forcings (solar and solar related) will move the global temperatures away from beneficial warming to dangerously cold temperatures. A list of the cooling (some gradual, some more dramatic) events that are or could be affecting the planet in the near future are listed below. The details can be researched very easily for those that want to understand the real science.

• Milankovitch Cycles (eccentricity, obliquity and precession are all headed cooler, Insolation, slightly cooler).
• Ocean Cycles (AMO – cooling, PDO – Cooling, ENSO – cooling)
• Solar Activity (TSI (a proxy for the more important solar forcings such as Cosmic Ray Flux, High Energy Particle, etc.) is decreasing and accelerating as we move further into the Modern GSM).
• Volcanic Activity (increasing aerosols (i.e.: cooling), typical in GSMs)
• Possible near-term catastrophic cold events (Beaufort Gyre release, lower latitude ice migration, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, solar micro-nova, Bill Gates geo-engineering)

As mentioned at the start, the CO₂ concentration and global temperatures are not moving in unison. Based on the analysis shown here, the temperature appears to be moving up in step functions. The often mentioned “PAUSE” appears to be a fairly common feature. Over this time period there has been four PAUSES. The first one would have begun prior to the available data and would have a minimum length of 7.25+ years (Dec-78 to Feb-86). The available data (on its own) would show a strong decline. The second PAUSE lasted 9.9 years. The third PAUSE was 18.3 years. The fourth and last PAUSE is at 6.7 years and counting. This last PAUSE is very likely to turn into a long, serious downturn given the historical response to Grand Solar Minimums and the other cooling events listed above. The PAUSES are not caused by CO₂. They appear to be related to the ocean cycles (a strong el Niño at the beginning of each PAUSE followed by offsetting el Niño/La Niña responses) with some AMO warming mixed in prior to the turn of the century (1975 to 2000) and some gradual solar activity decline post turn of the century. The natural forcings dominate over this time scale, as they have dominated throughout history and will continue to dominate in the future.

Stop buying into the fear porn that is constantly peddled on the “Climate Change” topic. These so-called unnecessary green initiatives are destroying the world economy, environment and our way of life and keeping the poorer countries of the world poor. We have real problems to deal with, but our “leaders” still plan to waste 80 – 100+ trillion dollars on Green New Deals that will reduce the temperature rise by 0.17 °C 80 years from now (based on the IPCC’s own “science”, OPS-17 – Paris Accord 2015). The same science that produces models that run way too hot? The same science that was used to produce the most recent IPCC AR6 Report? Hmmmmm….. Time for some Common Sense (OPPS-9) and time to #delaythegreen (OPPS-14).