The Oceans Are Boiling – Ocean Heat Content (OHC)

February 5, 2023March 5, 2023 rjdavison

OPS-64 – Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is often used as an indication that our planet is warming us into oblivion. Yes, the OHC is rising but what do those numbers reflect? They certainly do not reflect the rise in CO₂ concentration from 3 molecules in 10,000 (0.03%) to 4 molecules in 10,000 (0.04%). And despite Al Gore’s hysterical rant at the WEF meeting in January 2023, the oceans are not and will not ever be boiling. OHC has risen from around -3 10²² Joules in 1955 to just under 20 10²² Joules in 2022. That sounds like a lot but when expressed in more relatable units (Kelvin or °C), the numbers do not look so scary. The OHC increase is roughly equivalent to 0.0383 °C (from 0.0225 °C in 1955 to 0.0608 °C in 2022). Remember this is a change in heat content not a change in ocean temperature. A lot of energy (23 10²² Joules) has been accumulating in the oceans since 1955, but the oceans are huge, and that energy input is small in comparison.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

I have included an updated plot (cover image) of the OHC information shown on the OPS-64 slide and will be doing a future post that discusses the OHC in more detail. The OHC data quality (like most measured data) gets poorer the further we move back in time. Due to technology restrictions, the OHC in the deep ocean was generally non-existent prior to 2005. The ARGO buoys began deployment in 2000 and eventually reached a density high enough to properly estimate global OHC. But there is a problem for the CAGW alarmist crowd. The energy added since 2005 has only raised the OHC by 0.04 °C/decade. Al Gore can relax. The ocean temperatures will not reach the boiling point for another 16,000 years (assuming the ocean temperatures start at 36 °C (generally as warm as the surface ocean gets). Given that 90% of the oceans are contained below the thermocline (with temperatures below 5 °C), we have a significant safety factor built in. That and the fact that the planet’s natural cycles will have put us in a deep ice age well before 16,000 years.

We (humanity) may have some minor (and generally unmeasurable) effect on climate based on our activities, but that effect would be limited to the atmosphere. However, we do not have any meaningful effect on overall OHC. The oceans can and do have a significant effect on the atmosphere, but the atmosphere has very little to no effect on the overall oceans. The energy to drive the ocean temperatures has to come from either the sun or the earth’s interior. Examples of Temperature – Ocean Cycle – Solar activity connections are abundant in the peer-reviewed published literature. But I am not litigating those connections in this post, although I will point you to a Judith Curry blog that discusses and links to a few of those papers.

A rising OHC is not at all surprising given that the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI, just one small percentage of the energy coming from the sun) has been generally rising since the Maunder Minimum in the late 1600s and volcanic activity has also been increasing (CSS-31 – Volcanic Activity). Trying to tie rising OHC to rising CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere is ludicrous. CO₂ does not produce energy and cannot stop energy from leaving the planet. At best, the energy escape back to space is just delayed. But sure, we should continue pretending that CO₂ controls the temperature on the planet. The sun/oceans obviously have no effect on the temperature (sarcasm) or so the self admittedly “running too hot” computer models say (OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science). I would be curious to see anyone provide a breakdown of the natural causes of the rising OHC versus anything anthropogenic. Maybe throw in an explanation of how recent CO₂ emissions (86%+ of human emissions have occurred post-1950) could possibly have any affect on a system the size of the earth’s oceans (provide your calculations).