CO2 and Sea Level – Quick Questions/Answers

OPS-77 Do the atmospheric temperatures drive ocean temperatures or do ocean temperatures drive atmospheric temperatures? A rather basic question that deserves proper consideration. For those that are not aware, the oceans are a much larger repository for both heat and CO₂ than the atmosphere. Very simply, the oceans are driving atmospheric temperatures. Atmospheric temperatures have very little effect on ocean temperatures (whether the atmospheric temperature changes are due to solar activity, CO₂, geoengineering stupidity, etc.). So, not surprisingly, CO₂ has virtually no correlation with Sea Level changes, despite the alarmist’s constant cries that climate change (i.e.: All CO₂, All the Time, ACOAT) is causing devastating Sea Level Rise (SLR).

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

Where in the historical data does CO₂ show up as a driver? Given the lack of correlation, that would be nowhere. CO₂ is certainly not driving Sea Levels from 1807 to 1856 since CO₂ is rising and Sea Levels are dropping (at 1.15 mm/year). And there is no discernable evidence of CO₂ contribution to SLR post-1856, since the long-term trend is linear (i.e.: no acceleration, consistent with the individual tidal gauge data). There are minor decelerations and accelerations in the sea level data, but they have always returned to the long-term linear trend (the pre-1856 declines notwithstanding). So, what is causing those minor accelerations and decelerations? CO₂’s rise is smooth and exponential in nature, not linear with minor undulations on a roughly 60-year cycle. So, what phenomena could produce a 60-year accelerating/decelerating sea level change? Could the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) be the culprit? The AMO warms and cools on a roughly 60-year cycle. Could ocean temperatures be causing some thermal expansion or contraction that leads to the minor accelerations/decelerations? The answer, for those with common sense is obviously yes.

That does not stop the alarmist community from doing a little cherry picking and focusing on 1960 to the present. If you start in 1960, a minor isolated acceleration profile does exist. But that same profile exists from 1900 to 1960. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations rose by 98 ppm during the 1960 to 2020 period, almost 5 times the 22 ppm rise from 1900 to 1960. Yet both CO2 increases produced the same Sea Level profile? Obviously, there is more to climate change than the All CO₂, All the Time (ACOAT) alarmist narrative. Sea Level is just reacting to thermal changes within the ocean itself (through various ocean cycles with the AMO being the most prominent), not atmospheric temperatures. That same deceleration/acceleration cycle is present in the Frederikse et al Sea Level dataset displayed prominently on the NASA Vital Signs – Sea Level website (for those that do not like the Jevrejeva et al dataset used in this post). The Frederikse et al dataset (with more discussion and perspective) was included in many of my previous Sea Level posts (linked at the end of this post).

The various ocean cycles have easily overpowered CO₂’s contribution to atmospheric temperatures over the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present). As shown below, the 60-year AMO cycle is easily visible in the surface temperature data (despite aggressive homogenization), dropping temperatures during the cold phase and warming temperatures through the warm phase. The satellite temperature data highlights the extreme dominance that the shorter, more erratic, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has over any potential CO₂ contributions. Could anthropogenic CO₂ emissions have contributed to the warming post-1950 (given 86%+ of our emissions have occurred post-1950)? Absolutely, but the ocean cycles active pre-1950, were still active post-1950, dropping global temperatures from roughly 1945 to 1975 (the Ice Age is Coming Scare) and then raising temperatures from 1975 to 2005 into the early 21^st century temperature PAUSE. How much is due to CO₂ and how much is due to ocean cycles is open for discussion, but if ocean cycles were responsible for the 1945 to 1975 temperature rise, they are likely responsible for most of the 1975 to 2005 temperature rise.

The ocean cycles easily dominate any CO₂ temperature influence on varying time scales, which leads to the question, what is driving ocean cycles? As mentioned earlier CO₂ is not driving ocean temperatures or cycles. The energy required for those cycles comes from above (primarily solar activity, directly and indirectly) and from below with volcanic activity starting to gain more prominence. The Sea Level data very clearly shows that any CO₂ signal is completely lost in the natural variability. That is not surprising. Given that the entire atmospheric temperature has little effect on global ocean temperatures, how could a small change in a trace gas (0.03 to 0.04%) have any measurable affect on global oceans?

While the ocean cycles dominate CO₂, their influence on Sea Levels appears to be rather muted (limited to the small cyclical deceleration and acceleration events present since 1856). A more substantial driver is required to produce the temperature declines that produce the pre-1856 Sea Level declines and the sudden inflection point in the late 1850s, where Sea Level stared rising. CO₂ is certainly not responsible for these changes given its steady, but minor rise over that period. Solar Activity, on the other hand was in flux. Solar Activity and Temperatures were at lows in the early 1800s (the Dalton Minimum) with some recovery by the early 1850s. But something changed (not CO₂) in the last half of the 1850s and coincided with the large 1859 solar flare/Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) called the Carrington Event. Did the sun wake up from its Little Ice Age (LIA) hibernation? Solar Activity (along with temperatures) has risen in fits and starts since the depths of the LIA back in the Maunder Minimum (late 1600s). Long before CO₂ concentrations started rising. That rise (both solar activity and temperatures) continued until 1950, where the Total Solar Irradiance Momentum (TSI_M, the 20 year Moving Average) levelled off (with a very shallow decline).

The AMO is just starting into its cold phase and Solar Activity is approaching its Schwab Cycle 25 peak and will soon drop into Cycle 26 (the first cycle of the next forecasted Grand Solar Minimum (GSM, i.e.: minimal sunspot activity)). The Dalton Minimum (not a GSM, just a minor minimum) produced declining Sea Levels and there is no reason to suspect that the current GSM will not also produce declining Sea Levels. The cooling AMO will drop temperatures in Greenland (no rapid melting there) and Antarctica will continue to remain frozen with statistically flat and very cold temperature trends. The rest of the world will cool and glaciers that have advanced and retreated many times over the last 10,000 years (the current Holocene warm interglacial) will once again advance. Sea Levels will very likely start dropping over the next few years. All independent of CO₂ levels, just like the historical empirical data has shown.

The general population needs to stop buying into the simplistic, unscientific climate alarmism or the general population will soon find the change they should worry about is not climate (Sea Level Rise included), it is population levels. Climate policies are crippling the world’s economies, and you cannot pay for NetZero or any other unnecessary “green” initiatives if you do not have a strong economy. We are simply borrowing on our children’s and grandchildren’s future and burying them further and further in debt with no measurable temperature improvement for astronomical costs. And sadly, our energy and food policies (all driven by unsubstantiated climate models that have been self-acknowledged to run way too hot) are going to kill hundreds of millions of people around the world. Inflated energy, food, etc. prices are putting basic living needs out of reach for the poorer segments of society and driving our middle class closer to poverty levels. Climate policies will ultimately have serious consequences far beyond what I have laid out here.

Obviously, CO₂ has no measurable effect on Sea Level Rise. Which is not a surprise, given there is no empirical CO₂/Temperature datasets that show CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. How ineffective is CO₂? For those interested, my CSS-7 – CO₂, the FECKLESS Greenhouse Gas and CSS-53 – CO₂’s Moneyball Moment posts, delve into that subject. Here are some additional articles/papers/posts that provide further context to this discussion.

Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) – There is NO Climate Emergency

https://clintel.org

NASA – Vital Signs – Sea Level

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/?intent=121

Climate Short Story (CSS)

CSS-7 – CO₂ – The FECKLESS Greenhouse Gas

CO2 – The FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas

CSS-18 – Sea Levels and Climate Drivers

Sea Levels and Climate Drivers

CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO₂

Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

CSS-31 – Volcanic Activity

Volcanic Activity

CSS-33 – Sea Level Rise – Is There Acceleration?

Sea Level Rise – Is There Acceleration?

CSS-36 – Solar Flares and CMEs

Solar Flares and CMEs

CSS-46 – Sea Level – Fact Check

Sea Level – Fact Check

CSS-47 – CO₂ and Sea Level Do NOT Correlate

CO2 and Sea Level DO NOT Correlate

CSS-53 – CO₂’s Moneyball Moment

CO2’s Moneyball Moment

One Page Summary (OPS)

OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science

The State of Climate Science