IPCC – Chapter 12 – Extreme Weather

December 15, 2024 rjdavison

CSS-64 – IPCC – Chapter 12 – Extreme Weather Download PDF

CSS-64 When someone says to you that ‘Climate Change’ is causing extreme weather events to become more frequent and/or intense, show them the IPCC’s Table 12.12. The IPCC (supposedly the go to authoritative source for all things ‘climate change’), has, in their own terminology, “low confidence in direction of change” for the vast majority of the extreme weather categories. The few trends they have identified are localized or generally unrelated to extreme weather. The IPCC’s position is clear and consistent with the empirical data, extreme weather events are not getting more frequent, and they are not getting stronger. In reality, most extreme weather trends are statistically flat or declining.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The story changes very little when the IPCC casts its gaze to the future. Apart from some future increases in precipitation/snow, extreme weather trend estimates change very little even with the built-in bias that plagues the IPCC computer models that are self-acknowledged to “run way too hot” and are still using the unrealistically high RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. Any discussion based on RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios relies on propaganda not science.

Of the 33 historical “Climatic Impact-driver” categories, only five of the categories (discussed below) have a “High confidence of increase/decrease”. Only “Extreme heat” could be classified as extreme weather.

The “Mean air temperature” has increased (at least since the mid-1800s when we were in the depths of the Little Ice Age (LIA)). No disagreement here.
“Extreme heat” is a bit of a vague parameter, limited to the tropical regions (where extreme temperatures already occur) and some of the mid-latitudes in the historical records. But from the IPCC’s Chapter 11 assessment (page 1549), there does not appear to be much of a widespread increase in the annual maximum daily maximum temperature. The average temperature rise is driven by the increase in annual minimum daily minimum temperature. Hard to see how that will lead to major increases in extreme temperature. The data only goes back to 1960 which ignores the extreme heat associated with the late 19^th century and the 1930s/40s. There have certainly been record high temperatures set, but they are generally isolated and anomalous like the Pacific Northwest Heat Dome in 2021. Somehow, the cold records being set get ignored.
“Atmospheric CO₂ at surface” has increased (steadily with some acceleration since the pre-industrial era (pre-1850). Again, no disagreement.
The “Lake, river and sea ice” decrease has been limited to the Arctic only. The question that needs to be asked is, since when? Arctic sea ice has decreased since the satellite era began (late 1978). But minimum sea ice extent has been flat since 2007 when Al Gore predicted we would not have any sea ice at the north pole by the summer of 2013 (12 years ago). Minimum 2024 sea ice extent was 29.4% above the 2012 low (3.3 million km²). So, what were Arctic Sea ice extents pre-1978? They have been both higher and lower than today’s conditions.
“Mean ocean temperature” has been increasing (2005 to 2022) but at a rather mediocre rate of 0.04 K/decade (0.04 °C/decade).

CSS-8 – Earth Day 2021
OPS-49 – Temperature Manipulation

CSS-64 – I1 – Extreme Heat Download PDF

Study’s Model Simulations Show Arctic Sea Ice Reached Lowest Point On Modern Record… In The 1940s, Not Today
North Atlantic variability and its links to European climate over the last 3000 years

CSS-64 – I3 – Arctic Sea Ice Extent Download PDF

So, why are our alarmist politicians, journalists, etc. lying to the citizens of this planet about extreme weather events? The most logical answer is likely the time-honored desire for money, power, and control (in no particular order). And they are lying since they are not getting that information from their supposedly authoritative climate science source, the IPCC. And they are most certainly not getting their talking points from historical empirical data (CSS-52 – Extreme Weather Events). So, where are their cries of extreme weather being incubated? Could be totalitarian global organizations like the UN (the IPCC) and the WEF and the many grifters that speak on their behalf (Antonio Guterres, Al Gore, Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, etc.) along with their corporate enforcers (the Blackrocks, Vanguards, etc. of the world). But that is all just speculation on my part.

There is generally no increase in either the number or intensity of extreme weather events. And no, attribution studies, using the computer models that “run way too hot” and use unrealistically high emission scenarios do not prove that any individual extreme weather event had a higher chance of happening or was a bit stronger because of ‘Climate Change’ (i.e.: our greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO₂)). Seriously, if both the number and intensity of extreme weather events has been declining (or remained statistically flat), how can the attribution studies predict that they have a higher chance of happening or increasing in strength?