Greenland/Iceland – Homogenization

CSS-23 Greenland is an important area of the planet, given that most of the planet’s ice (outside of Antarctica) resides there. And based on ice core data, this appears to be where the solar activity expresses itself most directly. This CSS will not go into a detailed discussion on those Holocene temperatures. You can view those temperatures (GISP2) in my recent post (CSS-21 – CO₂ – Visualized Temperature Contribution). This CSS focuses on the measured (and homogenized) temperatures over the last century or two. Greenland, like Antarctica, is not as aggressively homogenized as many other areas around the world (although there are a couple of stations with questionable homogenizations). Given that many of the stations are scientific outposts and/or important shipping information points, the weather data required is important for safety and knowledge purposes (requiring up-to-date equipment). There is also very little Urban Heat Island Effects (UHIE) to worry about.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The primary takeaways from this post are simple but profound.

• Firstly, the temperatures are increasing at very low rates given the Northern location of both Greenland and Iceland. Why is this important? Combined they represent a large area. Conventional wisdom suggests that the northern latitudes warm faster under “Global Warming” conditions than the mid-latitudes and/or the equatorial regions. So, why have Greenland’s temperatures only increased at a rate of 1.26 °C/century over the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present). That is the measured temperature increase (the homogenized number is lower at 1.01 °C/century). For Iceland (Reykjavik), the measured temperature increase is 0.66 °C/century with the homogenized number a bit higher at 0.93 °C/century. The temperature increases at Stykkisholmur, Iceland (based on recorded data back to 1798) are just 0.81 °C/century. Anyone remember all the fear headlines (pre-COVID) that claimed everywhere in the world was warming twice as fast as everywhere else in the world? Maybe the planet is not warming at dangerous rates (i.e.: There is No Climate Emergency)!
• Secondly, the temperatures (Measured or Homogenized) in Greenland and Iceland (especially) correlate extremely well with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Given that they are both positioned in the North Atlantic, that correlation is not surprising. Likewise the warmer temperatures in Reykjavik (relative to similar Greenland latitudes) can be tied back to the warm Gulf Stream. What is surprising? The temperature/AMO connection almost completely dominates the climate picture. CO₂ is not producing the temperature fluctuations in Greenland or Iceland. Most human emissions (86%+) occurred after 1950. Yet, temperatures decreased significantly from 1945 to around 1975, culminating in the “Ice Age is Coming Scare” of the 1970s. The temperature decrease over that period is very similar to the corresponding increase from 1975 to 2005. Logic would suggest that if the cooling AMO caused the temperature decrease, the following equivalent increase would also be due to the warming phase of the AMO. That does not leave much room (if any) for CO₂ contribution. Just saying! The strong positive (i.e.: warming) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the late 1990s and into the 2000s are most likely responsible for the step jump in temperatures around the turn of the century. Even less room for CO₂ contribution.

Here are a few additional posts that expand on the homogenization discussion and CO₂ effectiveness.

CSS-7 – CO₂ – The FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas

CSS-13 – A Look At Homogenization

CSS-19 – Calgary – Homogenization

CSS-21 – CO₂ – Visualized Temperature Contribution