The Holocene & Solar Activity
CSS-56 The alarmist narrative depends heavily on you believing that CO2 is responsible for virtually all the warming (1.07 °C according to the IPCC’s 2021 AR6-SPM report) since the pre-industrial age ended around 1850. Yet somehow temperatures managed to fluctuate significantly during the pre-industrial period despite virtually flat atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Civilization has evolved significantly over the Holocene interglacial Warm Period (effectively our pre-industrial era), mostly through the Climate Optimums (the first half of the Holocene and the Minoan, Roman, Medieval and Modern Warm Periods).
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Why do those warm Climate Optimums and their counterparts (the much colder Dark and Little Ice Ages) exist when CO2 concentrations were essentially flat? Obviously, there are natural forcings in play that also affect climate (as much or more often more than CO2). Those natural forcings (primarily solar or solar related (i.e.: ocean cycles, Cosmic Ray Flux, etc.)) were still active over the Modern Temperature Record (1850 to the Present) and will continue to be active in the future (just not in the Climate Models that are self-acknowledged to run way too hot and use unrealistically high emission scenarios). The natural forcings have not ceased to exist just because the IPCC and the modeling groups decreed it so!
This discussion looks at those solar influences. The starting point is a recent video produced by Javier Vinós, “How We Know the Sun Changes Climate”. Javier reviews some of the major solar events and how they correlate to significant temperature events, global glaciation advances, and some population changes over the Holocene. What caught my eye was his discussion of four major Holocene solar minimums (the Spörer Minimum and three more which were pre-Little Ice Age (LIA), the Homer, Sumerian, and Boreal 1 Minimums). There are several links at the end of this Overview to papers that review each of these Minimums separately. The Little Ice Age (1240 to 1843) was experienced globally. The two hemispheres experienced the LIA differently, but they both experienced cold periods. The LIA was produced by a series of solar minimums (the Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minimums (±75-year durations), with the Spörer being the largest (≈150-year duration)). The Homer, Sumerian and Boreal 1 Minimums were also 150-year duration events.
The Holocene itself can be divided into two main sections. The early Holocene (10,000 to 4,000 BP) was characterized by much warmer temperatures than today’s rather mild conditions. Around 4,000 years BP, the temperatures started dropping into the Neoglacial that we currently occupy. The lowest temperatures occurred during the LIA (coinciding with the lowest Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) of the Holocene). The general rise in Temperature out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the extended early Holocene Climate Optimum and general temperature drop through the Neoglacial are related to the Milankovitch Cycles. The many shorter temperature fluctuations are also solar related, with some minor CO2 contributions. Remember, temperatures started rising out of the depths of the LIA, several centuries before CO2 could have any meaningful influence. Given 86%+ of humanity’s CO2 emissions were post-1950, we cannot be blamed for most of the warming since the pre-industrial era. Roughly half of the IPCC’s 1.07 °C rise occurred prior to 1950 (i.e.: primarily natural causes). The other half contains a very strong ocean cycle component (AMO and PDO). So, how much of the post-1950 temperature rise can be contributed to CO2? We might also ask how much of the temperature rise is due to homogenization (i.e.: data manipulation of the surface station data)?
Javier focused on one temperature proxy curve by Marcott et al (2013), “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years”. I expanded his analysis to include several additional temperature data sets from both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, some additional population observations, Steinhilber et al’s (2012) Holocene TSI Reconstruction, and some discussion on the 8,200 Year event that appears to be missing from Javier’s discussion. To start with the other temperature datasets conform to the glacial advance information Javier used to validate the temperature reconstruction he has put forward. Glacier advances were much more prevalent during the Neoglacial (cold) than the Holocene Climate Optimum (warmth), punctuated by strong glacial advances during the major solar minimums (Spörer (LIA), Homer, Sumerian, the 8,200 Year event and the Boreal 1 event). The warmth of the Holocene Climate Optimum allowed forests to grow where recently receding glaciers have revealed their existence. Temperatures were obviously warmer through the Climate Optimum. Trees grew at higher altitudes and grew at much higher latitudes than today.
The 8,200 Year event is very likely due to the same solar cycle that caused the four major Holocene solar minimums but was augmented by the Agassiz and Ojibway Lake collapses. Those collapses dumped a massive volume of cold freshwater into the North Atlantic creating the largest Holocene cold pulse prior to the LIA. A paper by Matero et al 2017, “The 8.2 ka cooling event caused by Laurentide ice saddle collapse”, provides some discussion points for those that are interested. What is causing these 2,500-year events? They are likely related to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO, rapid warmings) and subsequent Heinrich (rapid and prolonged cooling) events that are easily visible during the last deep ice age and far more pronounced than the minor 1.07 °C warming we just experienced. The events are still visible during the Holocene Interglacial Warm Period, they are just far more muted. We have very likely reached the pinnacle of the current DO Event (which began after the Maunder Minimum) and are poised to drop into another Heinrich temperature low. CO2 will not stop that process. I have included some additional discussion in my CSS-54 – Global Cooling NOT Warming is in the Forecast post.
From a population point of view, humanity’s progress accelerates during the warm periods and deteriorates during the cold periods. The Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were well documented, as were the Dark Ages and LIA that flanked them. Other empires also rose and fell with global temperatures (with no help or hindrance from CO2 concentrations). Javier provided Great Britain and Ireland population statistics, showing growth during the warmer periods and sharp drops during the major solar minimums. I supplied the Chinese Dynasty plot showing the dynasty changes coinciding with major climate inflections. The Dynasties rose and fell with the temperatures. As temperatures cool, crops fail leading to starvation, civil strife, revolts and/or migration/invasion. As temperatures rise, armies get built and humanity’s desire for conquest gets stoked. Does any of this sound familiar?
Javier was correct when he said, “we can state emphatically that changes in solar activity affects the climate, because that is what the climate says”. Effectively, the empirical data shows that solar activity has an enormous impact on our climate. CO2, not so much. Given that humanity’s CO2 emissions are primarily post-1950 (86%+ of them), there may be a minor, probably statistically insignificant CO2 component to the post-1950 warming. CO2’s warming capacity (i.e.: Climate Sensitivity) is getting saturated and is much lower than the 1.8 to 5.7 °C range used in the Climate Models (that are self-acknowledged to run way too hot and use unrealistically high emission scenarios). The alarmist narrative (All CO2, All the Time (ACO2AT)) states that the quasi-correlation of temperature and CO2 concentration rise since the pre-industrial era proves that CO2 is the only relevant climate driver. That premise ignores the fact that the same temperature rise (even using the homogenized (i.e.: manipulated) data) can be modeled more closely using TSI data (as a proxy) with NO, I repeat NO CO2 contribution. Papers by Soon, Connolly et al (2023) and Scafetta (2023) show this quite clearly.
I have put together two “simple” models that history match the MTR (1850 to the Present) much more closely than the current ACO2AT alarmist models. The first one (laid out in my Open Letter Addendum and OPS-8 – Basic Climate Model posts) uses just TSI and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The second model adds in CO2 and history matches the Central England Temperature (CET, 1659 to the Present) orders of magnitude better than ACO2AT alarmist models (CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2). The ACO2AT models have no ability to handle the solar minimums and cold of the LIA. The second model is set up to produce forecasts that include the coming Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) and AMO cooling. The model is not perfect, but it is far better than the alarmist option. Javier presented an interesting solar Sunspot Number (SSN) forecast model. While interesting, the model will not hindcast the Maunder Minimum (an extended period of minimal sunspot activity) and I suspect the model will not produce the minimal SSN that will likely accompany the upcoming GSM. SSNs give us part of the story, but TSI is more representative and can be variable despite similar SSNs.
Javier’s video is well worth watching and I would like to thank Javier for his contributions to common sense and realistic climate discussion. For more perspective and more detailed analysis, you can also check out some of the following posts.
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years – Marcotte et al
How We Know the Sun Changes Climate – Javier Vinós
CSS-28 – Greenland Glaciers
OPS-72 – Where Are Greenland’s Temperatures Headed?
CSS-45 – Antarctic Average Consolidated Temperature (AACT)
CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings
CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2
OPS-8 – Basic Climate Model
Open Letter Addendum
How We Know the Sun Changes Climate – Javier Vinós
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years – Marcotte et al
The 8.2 ka cooling event caused by Laurentide ice saddle collapse – Matero et al
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X17303205
Holocene glacier fluctuations – Solomina et al
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270913110_Holocene_glacier_fluctuations
Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate – Bevan et al
High-resolution analyses of an early Holocene climate event may imply decreased solar forcing as an important trigger – Björck et al (Boreal Oscillation)
A major widespread climatic change around 5300 cal. yr BP at the time of the Alpine Iceman – Magny et al (Sumerian Minimum)
Globally synchronous climate change 2800 years ago: Proxy data from peat in South America – Chambers et al (Homer Minimum)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X06007941
Solar and Volcanic Modulation of Little Ice Age Climate in the Tropical Andes, Venezuela – Polissar et al (Spörer Minimum, LIA)
Solar Minimum The Fastest Decline in almost 10,000 Years – Martin Armstrong
One Page Summary (OPS)
OPS-8 – Basic Climate Model
OPS-52 – NOAA – Solar Activity Forecast
OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science
OPS-72 – Where Are Greenland’s Temperatures Headed?
Climate Short Story (CSS)
CSS-10 – A Ride Through the Cenozoic
CSS-28 – Greenland’s Glaciers
CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2
CSS-42 – The Role of the Sun – Scaffeta 2023
CSS-44 – Global Temperature Distributions
CSS-45 – Antarctic Average Consolidated Temperature (AACT)
CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings
CSS-54 – Global Cooling NOT Warming is in the Forecasthttps://climatechangeandmusic.com/global-cooling-not-warming-is-in-the-forecast/
