Parliamentary Budget Office – GDP & Climate Change

OPPS-22 I focus on the empirical data (all the relevant empirical data) for a simple reason. Empirical Data is a basic requirement of the Scientific Method. Empirical data does not have any opinions, interpretations, ideology, etc. of its own. But why do I speak out? For my children and grandchildren’s’ sake. The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) alarmist community does not have the empirical data to back up their narrative. Very simply, there is no empirical CO₂/Temperature dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. But climate science is extremely complicated, and the general public can be forgiven for not understanding the detail.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

However, the general public should pay very close attention to the economic damage that our idiotological “leaders” are pursuing in an attempt to save us from a problem that does not exist. Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office just confirmed that continued greenhouse gas emissions will reduce our GDP growth by just 6.6% over the next 80 years (National Post, December 7^th, 2022). So, instead of growing 378.0%, we will only grow by 371.4% (ooh, scary). That equates to a GDP savings that is only $140 billion less than the do-nothing case. Note, my numbers are slightly different than McKitrick’s, but virtually the same magnitude (most likely due to slightly different 2022 GDP estimates) So, how much are we (Canada) planning to spend to fight “Climate Change”? Calgary City Council just approved $87 billion (62% of the possible $140 billion available GDP savings). With Ottawa’s Climate Change Master Plan expenditure ($57.4 billion) all the available savings have been used up. Every other private or municipal, provincial, federal government expenditure to combat “Climate Change” is just wasted taxpayer money.

Even the IPCC has acknowledged that future climate change will have negligible impact on GDP growth. The PBO also looked at what Canada’s GDP would look like with full Paris Accord compliance. Well, with full Paris Accord Compliance, Canada’s GDP would still be 5.8% below the do-nothing case.  For the trillions of dollars Canada will spend fighting “Climate Change”, we will improve our GDP prospects by roughly $17 billion (0.8%). Think about that, please. Justin Trudeau has claimed “that there has “never been a strong business case” for liquefied natural gas exports from Canada’s East Coast to Europe”. Yet, somehow, he sees a business case for spending trillions to save $17 billion. Just for the record, those Paris Accord commitments would reduce the temperature by just 0.17 °C in the year 2100 (using the IPCC “science” and assuming that every country was 100% compliant). At $2 trillion/year, we are spending ≈$10 trillion for every 1/100^th of a degree we reduce the temperature. There is no economic justification for any Green New Deals, NetZero, Fertilizer Reduction, etc., let alone a scientific justification.

There is no “Climate Emergency” (now or 80 years from now). Or more accurately, there is no “Climate Warming Emergency”. There is a very serious, dangerous and completely ignored “Climate Cooling Emergency” that will play itself out over the next few decades. Both the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and solar activity are moving into their cold phases (along with just about every other significant climate driver). The CAGW alarmist community has and are continuing to ignore the very real natural forcings that have, are and will continue to drive our planet’s climate. We can do very little to the change the climate (warming or cooling). We just need to adapt, as we always have. The very real (and very unnecessary) crisis we face is the self induced (debt enhancing) idiotological drive to religiously adhere to the CAGW alarmist narrative.

Here are some links that provide some additional perspective.

CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

OPS-17 – Paris Accord 2015

Paris Accord 2015

OPS-52 – Solar Activity – NOAA Forecast

Solar Activity – NOAA Forecast

OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science

The State of Climate Science

OPS-62 – Weakening Electromagnetic Field/Solar Winds

Weakening Electromagnetic Field/Solar Winds

The Parliamentary Budget Officer just debunked climate alarmism

https://www.yahoo.com/now/opinion-parliamentary-budget-officer-just-110013482.html

Trudeau called out for missing ‘crystal clear’ business case for LNG exports

Trudeau called out for missing ‘crystal clear’ business case for LNG exports (yahoo.com)