Holocene Logic – CO2 Logic

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This second Climate Short Story expands on the Holocene Temperature-CO2 Logic discussion by focussing in how the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1750 – Present) dataset chosen reflects on the importance of CO2 as a Climate Driver. The data sets reviewed are from NASA-GISS (an over-homogenized surface data set), HadCRUT4 (a less homogenized surface data set) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH, a satellite data set). Those three represent the general range of MTR temperature data sets.

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The quick summary shows that regardless of which MTR dataset is chosen, catastrophic temperature increases in the future simply cannot happen based on the historical MTR data. The UAH data suggests that CO2 contributed around 40 – 45% of the MTR warming (coincidentally close to what the theoretical CO2 Climate Sensitivity (roughly 1 °C) would have contributed). The HadCRUT4 data is a bit higher with a CO2 warming contribution of 50-55%. NASA-GISS rounds out the CO2 MTR contribution levels in the 65-70% range. The MTR temperature rise (regardless of the MTR dataset chosen) is neither unusual or unprecedented. CO2 does contribute to the warming but there is no empirical temperature/CO2 data set that shows CO2 is a primary driver on any statistically significant historical time scale and there is no empirical data that shows human CO2 emissions can ever lead to future catastrophic temperatures. Sorry, computer models are neither empirical data nor proof.