THE IPCC VS. THE FACTS THE CASE FOR CLIMATE REALISM
Today’s post is a document put together by Ken Wilson (a retired professional engineer) from Victoria, BC. He, like myself, has some major issues with the current application of “climate science”. He co-founded the Climate Realists of Victoria, BC group (CRV) with Dr. Tim Ball (RIP) in 2019 and recently became a CO2 Coalition Member. I met Ken through the some joint activities between the CRV and the Friends of Science Society (FoSS). This is a long, comprehensive, plain language look at the “Climate Change” issue. Well worth the read. I played a very, very minor role in the document’s development by providing some updated graphs and some proof-reading services. And as per this post, a small hand in the distribution of his document. The full PDF can be downloaded from my website. I have included the Executive Summary (below) for a quick overview.
Author: Ken Wilson, P. Eng. (Ret)
THE IPCC VS. THE FACTS THE CASE FOR CLIMATE REALISM
Climate Realists of Victoria, BC
January, 2023
Executive Summary
A key assumption driving the computer models in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) studies is that rising CO2 levels from the burning of fossil fuels produces a strong positive feedback response from water vapor.
The IPCC’s computer-modeling results are not supported by weather-balloon data, satellite data, long-term surface weather records, or by the physics of the saturation curve for CO2. The computer models are running too hot and they therefore do not provide a reliable basis for governments to use in determining their global warming policies.
We have been living in the Modern Warm Period since the end of the Little Ice Age (1300- 1850). This is a moderate warming trend that is similar in character to that of the Medieval Warm Period about 1,000 years ago, the Roman Warm period about 2,000 years ago, and the Minoan Warm Period about 3,500 years ago.
This is all happening within the Holocene Interglacial period, which ended almost 100,000 years of glaciation about 12,000 years ago. At the Holocene maximum, about 6,000 years ago, northern summers were about 4° Celsius warmer than today, almost all the glaciers had melted, a spruce forest was growing at Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, and sea levels were about 2 metres (6 feet) higher than today.
We entered a Neoglacial cooling phase about 3,000 years ago. New glaciers began to form during temperature dips like the Little Ice Age.
This essay describes why the IPCC was created, how it operates, the issues that it has failed to address, and the misallocation of the West’s economic and intellectual resources that has resulted from the IPCC’s and environmentalist Non-Governmental Organizations’ (NGOs) single-minded demonization of CO2.
About half of the essay is focused on technical and scientific data. Readers who are already familiar with why and how the IPCC came to be created may wish to concentrate on the technical data in their first reading of the document. I would suggest they read the following sections in the following order:
The Scientific Method on p. 8. This section outlines the fundamental difference between a study based on the Scientific Method and one based on Post-Normal Science procedures. The IPCC studies are based on Post- Normal Science procedures that rely on a consensus of experts to define how the atmosphere should behave. Data will show that the expert consensus for the IPCC studies is wrong. This is the fatal flaw underlying the IPCC’s studies.
The IPCC: Its Structure and Some of its Findings on p. 14. This section provides insight into the administrative procedures underlying how IPCC studies are conducted and their results incorporated into the IPCC’s key document, “Summary for Policymakers” (SPM). A sampling of statements from previous SPM statements is provided.
The Modern Warm Period on p. 16. This key section compares IPCC statements and graphs against long-term weather data from a variety of sources.
Summary of the Modern Warm Period on p. 37. This section summarizes the key flaws in the IPCC’s computer modeling studies. This concludes the discussion of climate changes in the Modern Warm Period.
The Holocene on p. 40. This broadens out the discussion to climate changes over the past 12,000 years. It discusses some of the natural forcings that were not recognized or dealt with adequately in the IPCC studies.
Deep Geological Time on p. 49. This section gives graphic evidence of conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum of our current ice age 20,000 years ago. It also outlines why we may slip back into another advancing phase of our ice age when the Holocene ends.
The Demonization of CO2 on p. 54. This section outlines the substantial benefits being gained from rising CO2 levels on crop yields and the greening of the Earth.
Economic Issues on page 65 and Conclusion on page 69. The last parts of the essay deal with some of the disastrous and potentially disastrous economic impacts of the IPCC’s attempts to throttle fossil fuels before we have an adequate alternative.
