Calgary Temperatures – Revisited

July 14, 2024 rjdavison

CSS-59 – Calgary Temperatures – Revisited Download PDF

CSS-59 For Show Your Stripes Day (June 21^st, 2024, Ed Hawkins’ creation to celebrate the catastrophic temperatures we have produced since the pre-industrial era), I thought I would personalize mine and do a version for Calgary (adding to my original look at stripe charts (CSS-38 – Stripe Charts – Temperature)). I had to put that on hold when I realized that NASA/GISS had made significant changes to the data since my 2022 look at Calgary Temperatures (CSS-19 – Calgary – Homogenization). The “official” data to May 2022 was severely “homogenized’ to produce a +1.35 °C/century temperature rise. While Measured temperatures from the new Calgary International Airport ‘C’ weather station (CIA-C, added in 1973) were declining at a 1.76 °C/century rate. That is a +3.11 °C/century adjustment. On top of that, virtually every month in that already massively adjusted 1973 to 2022 data set was erratically re-adjusted sometime between 2022 and 2024. WHY?

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

Before I get into the detailed discussion on a very dry subject, I will lay out the general findings. This discussion is focused on Calgary (obviously localized), but this type of homogenization takes place routinely all over the world. As shown in my CSS-19 – Calgary Homogenization post, NASA/GISS appears to have changed their homogenization algorithm sometime between July 2021 and April 2022. And not to be outdone they appear to have changed their homogenization algorithm again sometime between April 2022 and April 2024. These changes are not cosmetic or minor! The yearly CIA-C weather station 2024 adjustments vary from a -0.45 °C reduction to +0.37 °C enhancement (a range of +0.82 °C, changing yearly). The 2024 adjustments are a reduction from the +1.43 °C range in 2022 and +1.18 °C range in 2021. Why are NASA/GISS surface temperature estimates so fluid (fanciful) and radically different from one year to the next? I have no idea, but their homogenization algorithms do not appear to adhere to any obvious scientific principles. In the world I live in, I experience Measured temperatures, not the “homogenized” temperatures dreamed up by the NASA/GISS homogenization algorithms!

Getting back to the detail, the 1973 to 2024 dataset showed a smaller, but still significant homogenization adjustment (2.69 °C/century, a 13.5% drop). With the updated data, the Measured temperatures are declining at 1.38 °C/century, homogenized data magically still shows a significant rise of 1.31 °C/century (based on the 13 Month Moving Average, MMA). Is NASA/GISS trying to bring their temperatures back towards reality? Not likely, the adjustment drop was primarily due to some higher (but not catastrophically higher) Measured temperatures since 2022.

Looking at the monthly data in detail, shows that Measured temperatures were consistent between the 2022 and 2024 data acquisitions (as it should be). There was six months of temperature data missing from 2021 in the 2022 data dump that were eventually included in the 2024 data dump. Those changes were inconsequential and probably justified. The analysis gets more interesting when the homogenized data is reviewed. As mentioned earlier, the Measured temperature data adjustment between 2022 (1.35 °C/century) and 2024 (0.85 °C/century) was significant (at 0.50 °C/century, a 37.0% drop) and without any apparent justification. Some of the difference is due to the new data collected since May 2022, but most of the difference is related to the “homogenization”.

Calgary temperatures (at the airport location) have been recorded back into 1881, with a generally continuous data set beginning in 1884. The CIA-A weather station was in operation from 1884 to 2012. The adjustments were just as widespread in this dataset, but there were also some unusual aberrations. Unlike the CIA-C’s generally consistent Measured temperature data, the CIA-A’s Measured temperature dataset has been modified noticeably. That is concerning, since there should be no reason to “adjust” these long established historical Measured temperatures. The adjustments occurred over three periods (1895 to 1908 (19 monthly adjustments), 1943 to 1954 (17 monthly adjustments), and 1990 to 2007 (16 monthly adjustments), and two additional random months). The rationale for these adjustments eludes me. As mentioned before, there should be an easily accessible platform that explains every adjustment.

Moving to the Homogenized temperature data, we find another hodge podge of constant adjustments. The only year that is not being adjusted is 2012 (at least not until next year). In 1884, the “homogenizers” added 0.25 °C to the measured temperature. Every year they added a little less, then began reducing measured temperatures in 1895 (all on a linear trend, ending in 1913 with a 0.46 °C temperature reduction). A step change was initiated, and they added 0.47 °C for the later 1913 temperature data. A parallel reduction in adjustments was then initiated, ending in 1940 with a 0.22 °C reduction. The adjustment reductions were reversed in 1940. The adjustment trend began rising (at the aggressive mirror image rate of the pre-1940 declines), then moderated significantly in 1951 before ending the rise in 1969 with a minor 0.09 °C addition. Another step change and the 1970 measured temperatures are being reduced by 0.11 °C. The 1951 to 1969 adjustment trend slope is resumed and ends in 2012 with no adjustment.

There is no rhyme or reason to the homogenization process in this data. The alarmist community is just playing games with the temperature data, constantly working towards the unnecessary and unscientific (and in my opinion, dangerous) All CO₂, All the Time narrative and the push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO₂). Someone with some gravitas needs to confront NASA/GISS and Canada Environment and get them to provide some answers for the so called, I suspect over-homogenization that has taken place. Will that come from the Canadian Federal Government (not likely), our Alberta Provincial Government (maybe), or our Calgary Municipal Government (certainly not from the top (i.e.: Mayor “Climate Emergency”))?

Please feel free to forward this information to your political representatives!