Volcanic Activity

December 4, 2022 rjdavison

CSS-31 This is my first post directly related to volcanic activity. An online acquaintance (Andy Wienckowski) asked me (after reading my Open Letter (2018)) about the increasing volcanic activity over the last century. The data he provided (thank you, Andy) was from the Smithsonian Institute. As per usual, receiving new data gets this somewhat retired engineer a little bit excited. Volcanic activity has indeed been increasing over the last century. In addition, most major volcanic eruptions appear to occur during cooler periods (over the last 10,000+ years, the Holocene) and more specifically during recent solar minimums (again cold periods, due to reduced solar activity). The post also layers in some of the information presented by Prof. Wyss Yim in October 2022. Prof. Yim lays out the significant effects recent volcanic activity has had on ocean cycles, global temperatures, and Arctic Ice Extent. Most of this volcanic influence, like their (the CAGW alarmist crowd) tendency to ignore most of the important solar forcings (cosmic ray flux, high energy particles, etc.), is not included in their computer models.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

One more reason to question the models that the modelers themselves have self admitted, run too hot (OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science). They should use a little common sense and allocate some of the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present) warming to the solar forcings and global volcanic activity they ignore. Right now, the modelers assign a small component of warming (virtually zero) to the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), throw in a Pinatubo or two and then arbitrarily (unscientifically) allocate the rest of the warming to anthropogenic (primarily CO₂) forcings. I wonder why the models run too hot. What else are our climate scientists ignoring? A “small” one to start with, the significant geothermal and volcanic activity in West Antarctica. Although this activity does not affect the ocean and atmospheric cycles that Prof. Yim has reviewed, the warming (completely unrelated to CO₂) can affect sea levels and ice shelf stability and ultimately the global climate. The bigger ignore, is the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) cold phase that we are just entering.

GSMs are not generally great times for humanity. The currently forecasted GSM will be no different from a technical/scientific viewpoint (OPS-52 – Solar Activity – NOAA Forecast). Unfortunately, our current idiotological leaders have complicated/devastated our financial systems heading into what could be the worst climate period in modern human history. And no, minor, beneficial CO₂ warming will not be the problem. The planet will cool due to the GSM and AMO influence. Just about every other significant climate driver (the Milankovitch cycles, Beaufort Gyre, Mid-Latitude Ice Migration, GSM volcanic activity, etc.) are also forcing cooling. A few examples of cooling potential have been laid out in my CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO₂ and OPS-62 – Weakening Electromagnetic Field/Solar Winds posts. We are facing a serious climate situation over the next few decades. And unfortunately, our current situation is being complicated by an accelerating magnetic field weakening. One more thing the CAGW alarmist crowd are ignoring. Society had the benefit of a strong magnetic field during the Maunder and Dalton Minimums. We are not so lucky and could be hit with more than just cooling problems.

That ball of energy (the sun), essentially ignored by the computer modellers, can throw a whole lot more at us than just the “moderate” warming (beneficial) and cooling (often deadly) over the last 10,000+ years (the Holocene interglacial warm period). Our weakening magnetic field leaves us much more vulnerable to large solar flares. An 1859 Carrington type Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) would devastate our planet. Just imagine a world without electricity. A large CME is a very real possibility (and soon). We should be hardening our society for the coming cold and the possibility of a large CME, not wasting time and money we do not have on unnecessary, uneconomic CO₂ emission reduction initiatives (in whatever form they take (renewables, EVs, NetZero, Green New Plan, etc.)). A little more detail is provided in my OPPS-20 – Why Are We Putting All Our Eggs in One Basket post.

As I have mentioned before, we need to wake up as a society. We have some serious problems (energy, food, financial, supply chain, etc. crises) that will get worse and sadly they appear to be deliberately created and/or are being ignored (colder, dangerous temperatures are coming over the next few decades).