UAH-LT Temperature – November 2022

December 12, 2022 rjdavison

CSS-32 This post started out as a quick update to the University of Alabama, Huntsville’s Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperature data. But like everything related to Climate Science (in the real world), there is nothing simple or quick. My previous looks at the UAH-LT data were limited to the global temperature data average. This time I am rolling in the Antarctic (South Pole, 60°+ S) and Arctic (North Pole, 60°+ N) data into the analysis. Global UAH Averages (full data set) have increased at a 1.34 °C/century rate. But previously established general trends have not changed. Rather than a smooth steady rise (that would suggest CO₂ was the primary driver), the temperatures step up suddenly and then remain flat overall (with significant temperature fluctuations (as much as 1.0 °C in a year). After the strong 2016 El Niño, temperatures have declined 0.53 °C in just under 7 years. Those temperature declines will continue as we move further into the current La Niña, the cooling phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the cold inducing Grand Solar Minimum (GSM), we are just entering.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The UAH-LT Antarctica (South Pole, 60°+ S) 44-year temperature data shows a virtually flat temperature profile overall (0.16 °C/century. Over the last 30 years, that decline was statistically flat at 0.002 °C/century. Interestingly, the temperature decline over the last seven years has been 1.07 °C/century (as reflected in the global numbers). The other interesting point (which I do not have a specific explanation for) is the seven-year pulsing expressed in both the Antarctic and the Arctic data. Some of that pulsing could be related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and/or volcanic activity. The ENSO-volcanic activity connection is laid out by Prof. Wyss Yim in his October 2022 presentation. Unfortunately, Prof. Yim’s analysis only covers the recent volcanic data and does not look at the significant West Antarctica activity.

The UAH-LT Arctic (North Pole, 60°+ N) data has been increasing at a rate of 2.49 °C/century. But that 2.49 °C/century is not completely representative. From 1978 to 1994, the Arctic LT temperature declined at 1.58 °C/century, followed by a rise of 1.33 °C/century over the 1995 to 2015 period. To cap things off, temperatures from 2016 to the present, temperatures have declined at a 7.0 °C/century rate, with temperature declines poised to continue or accelerate as the third straight La Nina plays out and we move into the cool phase of the AMO, and the colder climate typically associated with GSMs. Frankly, that number was higher than I would have expected, scares me, and should scare everyone on this planet. As mentioned previously, the seven-year pulses are active here but more pronounced.

A few quick hits were added to this post that provide some additional perspective to the UAH temperature data. Global Sea Ice Extent mirrors the UAH-LT temperature data. That does not happen with any of the constantly adjusted upward, continually increasing (i.e.: over-homogenized) surface temperature data sets. The Greenland Surface Mass Balance (SMB) is increasing at rarely seen rates. Greenland/Iceland temperatures (where most of the Northern Hemisphere ice exists) have only been increasing at roughly 1 °C/century. Not that alarming and poised to drop over the next few decades as the AMO moves into its cold phase. Not surprising, given that the Greenland/Iceland temperatures have always moved up and down with the AMO over the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present).