IPCC – Settled Science

OPS-13a A discussion I had recently steered me back to the IPCC website. After reviewing some of the reports (link included on the OPS), I realized again why I went down the path of focussing on the data and not just the propaganda from any side of the argument.

To quickly summarize, the IPCC again looks at only a small fraction of the available CO2-temperature data (none of which shows CO2 driving the global temperatures on any statistically significant time scale) and essentially ignores solar activity. The reports primarily focus on computer projections that are unproven and rely on unsubstantiated theories.

Reading their “Attribution of climate changes to human and natural influences on the climate system” section (1.3.1) does not give the reader much confidence that the “science is settled”. Not surprising, since the science isn’t settled. Ignoring solar activity will have serious negative consequences over the next few decades. The unseasonable cold, excessive flooding, etc. the planet has been experiencing, is just the start of the forecasted “Grand Solar Minimum”. Even NASA has reluctantly acknowledged the coming GSM.

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OPS-13b This post continues the 1.3.1 discussion and adds in some discussion on the IPCC view on Extreme Weather events. There is no visible link between “Climate Change” (or more specifically CO2 induced “Global Warming”) and Extreme weather events. Again, not surprising since a warming planet will actually mean less severe weather. In the warming planet scenario, the poles warm more and the temperature differential between the poles and tropics decreases. As the temperature differential decreases the energy available for storm development and growth also decreases. Conversely, one of the prominent characteristics of a “Grand Solar Minimum” is additional cloud cover (due to increased cloud nucleation associated with increased cosmic ray penetrations into the atmosphere) and excessive precipitation. All of which leads to global cooling, severe crop losses and civil strife. There are multiple historical analogies (the Little Ice Age and the Dark Ages to name a couple). Cooling associated with GSMs has never been pleasant for the human race. This GSM will be no different. With some luck, technological advances and the mild warming that CO2 has provided, we may fare better than past civilizations (but only if we acknowledge the problem).