Hurricanes – Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

CSS-37 I have, in the past, talked about hurricanes and tropical storms. But my data was limited to the number of storms/hurricanes. And contrary to the CAGW narrative, the number of storms has been declining since 1965 at 32.7 storms/century and the number of hurricanes has declined since 1985 at a 22.1 hurricanes/century rate. So, no CO₂ emissions and/or rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are not leading to more hurricanes/storms. The narrative has necessarily migrated to (regardless of numbers) storm/hurricane intensity is increasing and/or we are inundated with attribution studies that suggest every storm can be tied back to “climate change” (i.e.: primarily CO₂ emissions). What a load of hooey! Like the numbers, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE, a measure of hurricane intensity) is also generally declining.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

Data notwithstanding, even the IPCC and NOAA generally express low confidence in cyclonic trends. They use a lot of word salad to try and pretend that humans might still be responsible, but the data does not back up their story. The number of global storms/hurricanes has been declining for decades as has the global ACE. And we still must deal with that nasty little reality that there is no empirical CO₂/Temperature dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. Is it that hard to believe that the solar and ocean cycles play a significant role in our planet’s climate? After all, the sun rules the sea temperatures, and the sea temperatures rule the Earth’s climate. The atmosphere has very little influence on ocean temperatures.

IPCC – AR6 – Summary for Policymakers (SPM) – A.3.4

“There is low confidence in long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of all-category tropical cyclones. Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-induced climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (high confidence), but data limitations inhibit clear detection of past trends on the global scale.”

NOAA – GFDL Website – Global Warming and Hurricanes

“In summary, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability, although greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming.  Some possible emerging human influences on past tropical cyclone activity were summarized above.  These include, for the Atlantic, recent increases in rapid intensification probability, aerosol-driven changes in hurricane activity, and increases in extreme precipitation in some regions.  At the global scale, increased intensities and fraction of tropical cyclone observations at high intensity are examples, along with a poleward shift of the latitude of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the Northwest Pacific basin.  Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet clearly apparent due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations.”

The same discussion applies to other forms of extreme weather as well. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a good source for these studies. The link here comes from his 2013 Senate Committee Presentation, but he has more up-to-date information on his website. There will always be a dramatic fire, flood, tornado, drought, etc. somewhere in the world that the CAGW alarmist crowd will point to and attribute to “climate change”. What they do not provide is the longer-term data trends. Why is that? Could it be that the trends do not conform to their narrative? Well that is exactly why they do not present any long term data. As with hurricanes, forest fires do not correlate with CO₂, global drought does not correlate to CO₂, recent temperatures do not correlate to CO₂, snow levels do not correlate to CO₂, etc., etc. So, what does correlate with rising CO₂? Rising crop yields, earth greening, rising life expectancy, and dramatically declining climate related deaths, to name a few. All the benefits that society currently enjoys are tied directly to the use of cheap, reliable, high density fossil fuels (which produce CO₂ as a by-product). But our “leadership” continues to actively try and reduce the levels of this vital, non-toxic gas that is absolutely critical for the survival of life on this planet. Will lower CO₂ levels reduce the frequency of the extreme events listed here? Hard to imagine that when the historical data shows that overall, the extreme events are declining as CO₂ rises.

There really is no scientific, economic, or even societal justification for all these so-called “green” emission related initiatives (NetZero, Carbon Capture, carbon taxes, ESG, etc.). In my opinion, the only justification lies in the political ideology festering in the UN and WEF and their global political puppets. Higher CO₂ levels are just not dangerous, and they are very likely highly beneficial. So, when will our “leadership” stop lying about the “climate change” file and/or when will our society stop believing their lies?

For more perspective and more detailed analysis, you can check out some of the following posts.

CSS-25 – Incremental Homogenization – HadCRUT4 to HadCRUT5

Incremental Homogenization – HadCRUT4 to HadCRUT5

CSS-27 – Is CO₂ Really the Primary Climate Driver?

Is CO2 Really the Primary Climate Driver?

CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO₂

Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models

CMIP6 Climate Models

CSS-33 – Sea Level Rise – Is There Acceleration?

Sea Level Rise – Is There Acceleration?

OPS-55 – The State of the Climate

The State of Climate Science

OPS-57 – Hurricane Update – 2021 Season

Hurricane Update – 2021 Season

OPS-63 – Hurricane Update – 2022

Hurricane Update – 2022 Season

STATEMENT OF DR. ROGER PIELKE, JR. to the SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT of the COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY of the UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HEARING on A FACTUAL LOOK AT THE RELATIONSHIP OF CLIMATE AND WEATHER 11 December 2013

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.38.pdf