Hurricane Update – 2022 Season

December 28, 2022 rjdavison

OPS-63 Wishing You All a Happy New Year!!

Another year has gone by, and the latest hurricane season has once again confirmed that any who are professing that hurricane activity is increasing are either ignorant or outright lying (maybe both). Global Storms have been declining at a rate of roughly 33/century since the mid-60s. Likewise, hurricanes are declining by 22/century since the mid-80s. The only place in the world that shows increasing storm/hurricane activity is the North Atlantic (between 20 and 30% of the global activity). The North Atlantic activity rise (at +3 hurricanes/century and +8 storms/century) will not be enough to change the established global declines.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

But do not be surprised come next spring when the clarion call of impending climate change induced hurricane disaster is once again heard across the land. NASA said in their May 2022 North Atlantic forecast that we could expect “above-average hurricane activity this year – which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season”. They also went on to say that “For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 (actual – 14) named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 (actual – 9) could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 (actual – 1) major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher)”. Bold actuals are my adds. So, no NASA, 2022 was not an above average year for hurricane activity (even within just the North Atlantic). It was just average. An average North Atlantic season (since 2000) produced on average 7.65 hurricanes. 2016, 2019 and 2021 had fewer. Ultimately, the “seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season” is meaningless, especially on a global basis.

I will stick my neck all the way out and say, rising CO₂ is not causing increased hurricane activity in this era of declining hurricane activity. NASA is full on climate alarmist, but they cannot predict storm/hurricane activity six months out, let alone 25, 50, or 100 years from now. They (along with the rest of the CAGW alarmist crowd) could start by looking at the historical data which has been trending down at 33 storms/century for 57 years and 22 hurricanes/century for 37 years. The CAGW alarmist crowd has and will continue to knowingly ignore any empirical data that refutes their narrative. The CAGW alarmist crowd are a huge problem for our children’s future. They are driven by ideology, money, and power. However, the larger problem is the general public’s lethargy and/or fear. Remaining silent and complying with unscientific, unnecessary dictates is no longer an option. The empirical data is available and clearly shows that rising CO₂ levels (the CAGW alarmist definition of “Climate Change”) are not driving the climate. In fact, there is “NO” empirical CO₂/Temperature dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale.