Global Cooling NOT Warming is in the Forecast
CSS-54 This post started out as a “simple” addendum to some previous Greenland posts (CSS-26 and OPS-72). I was adding in some additional discussion on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which explains most of the discrepancies in the average Greenland temperature and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) correlation. The Ocean Cycles, NOT CO2 are obviously the dominant climate driver in Greenland and they (primarily the AMO) will be driving temperatures down over the next few decades. But as with all things Climate, the big picture is complicated. Unfortunately, the AMO is not the only significant cold driver poised to impact our planet.
#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata
A Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) is also in the forecast. My CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2 and OPS-52 – NOAA – Solar Activity Forecast posts investigate the GSM discussion (laying out the coming temperature drops). In this post, I am addressing some additional climate altering events that are starting to be discussed in the mainstream news. There are many articles/papers discussing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) status. If the AMOC were to collapse, the planet would quickly be transformed into a colder state. Will the AMOC collapse? When might the AMOC collapse? Open questions that still require discussion and confirmation. However, the eminent cold freshwater releases associated with the Beaufort Gyre and Heinrich Events (rapid cooling events that follow rapid Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events like we are currently experiencing) could hasten and lock in an AMOC collapse in the very near future.
Our ideological leadership (political, media, academic, etc.) continue to ignore these real and present dangers and push their societal/economically suicidal policies. We should be preparing for significantly colder temperatures, shorter growing seasons, reliable energy shortages, etc. The climate is going to change (it will get colder, just not in those climate models that self-admittedly run way too hot while ignoring the many more dominant natural forcings). CO2’s minor warming capacity, while welcomed, will be negligible over the next few decades. More discussion and links are available in my CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models, CSS-42 – The Role of the Sun – Scaffeta 2023, CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings, CSS-53 – CO2’s Moneyball Moment, and OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science posts. Climate Change is Complicated (CSS-35). You need to do some research and not rely on opinion pieces (mine included). Look at the data (all of it) and come to your own conclusions!
As an aside, I am a signatory to CLINTEL’s World Climate Declaration: There is NO Climate Emergency. The time may have come to consider modifying that declaration, confirming there is no warming emergency but there may be a Climate Emergency related to colder temperatures. Just some food for thought. For more perspective and more detailed analysis, you can also check out some of the following posts.
Scafetta – Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records
CSS-42 – The Role of the Sun – Scaffeta 2023
Soon-Connolly – The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data
CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings
Recent state transition of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre
Triple Cold Bomb First Time in 1000s of Years
Understanding deep ocean circulation and climate modeling
CSS-53 – CO2’s Moneyball Moment
There is NO Climate Emergency
Triple Climate Bomb First Time in 1000s of Years
AMOC’s Peril: Crucial Ocean Current At Risk Of Collapse
Understanding deep ocean circulation and climate modeling
https://arstechnica.com/science/2010/01/understanding-deep-ocean-circulation-and-climate-modeling/
Recent state transition of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre
The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data – Soon et al 2023
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/9/179
Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records – Scaffeta 2023
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987123001172?via%3Dihub
One Page Summary (OPS)
OPS-52 – NOAA – Solar Activity Forecast
OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science
OPS-72 – Where are Greenland’s Temperatures Headed?
Climate Short Story (CSS)
CSS-26 – Greenland/Iceland – AMO-PDO-CO2 Distribution
CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2
CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models
CSS-35 – Climate Change – It’s Complicated – CC-IC
CSS-42 – The Role of the Sun – Scaffeta 2023
CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings
CSS-53 – CO2’s Moneyball Moment
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