Consolidated Ocean Cycle Indexes

OPS-39 This post is an extension of OPS-38 (Central England Temperature (CET)) post. In that post I focussed on solar activity and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation’s (AMO) influence on the global and CET. I mentioned other ocean cycles (the el Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Beaufort Gyre), but I did not include them in that analysis. They were left out for simplicity and their more erratic nature. Consolidating all the ocean cycles on one plot (with solar activity, CO₂ and Temperature) would be confusing at best. So, I decided to do an ocean cycle consolidation plot on its own. Some interesting observations come out of that consolidation.

#showusthedata #globalwarming #climatechange

The AMO is very visible in the temperature data (CET and global), with a very tight 60-year cycle. The AMO’s dominance is related to its relative position to the large land masses in the Northern Hemisphere, affecting North America and Europe directly. The global temperatures move more dramatically over land than they do over ocean. The PDO/ENSO while also influential do not have as large an impact on the Northern Hemisphere land masses and therefore average global temperatures. The Beaufort Gyre may be one of the more important ocean currents. The Beaufort Gyre consists of cold, fresher water rotating clockwise in the heart of the Arctic Ocean. When that current reverses direction, all that cold fresh water ends up in the Northern Atlantic, cooling the Northern Hemisphere land masses. The last cold freshwater pulse occurred in the 1960/70s (the Great Salinity Anomaly) and probably contributed to the Ice Age is Coming scare over that period.

The Beaufort Gyre, like so many things in “Climate Science” is not well understood. The change in rotation has been expected for decades. That delay is allowing more freshwater buildup and a potentially colder response. The Beaufort Gyre has been implicated as a potential trigger for the deep ice ages. When combined with large scale iceberg migrations from higher latitudes (at both poles) and the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM, OPS-21 – Solar Cycles – Coming GSM), would that be enough to trigger a real ice age. Let us hope not. One thing I do know is the impact of events like the Beaufort Gyre, the GSM and iceberg migrations are not built into the IPCC computer models (OPS-22 – Computer Models – Real Simple)).

The Ice Age is Coming period could easily be a combination of many factors. The Beaufort Gyre (mentioned above), the noticeable drop-in solar activity (Sunspot Cycle 20) and the Ocean Cycles. The AMO, PDO and ENSO were all in their negative (i.e.: cold) phase. That cold phase is very visible in the consolidated ocean cycle curve. And that is using the dampened PDO (75% reduction) and ENSO (50% reduction) curves. The undampened curves are much more dramatic.

The consolidated ocean index rise out of that deep cold phase is just as dramatic. While CO₂ may be adding to the large rise in global temperatures from 1975 to 1998, CO₂ is not responsible for all that rise. So, again the discussion comes back to the strength of CO₂’s climate forcing. Temperatures dropped (or remained flat depending on “homogenization” levels) over the 1945 – 1975 period, temperatures remained flat from 2002 – 2015 and temperatures have dropped over the last several years despite constantly increasing CO₂ rates. So yes, there is more to “Climate Change” than just CO₂.

One of the most important points I hope everyone can acknowledge is the complexity of the climate system. The IPCC computer models simply do not reflect that complexity (OPS-22, Computer Models – Real Simple). Yet we rely on them for government policy. A fool’s game in my opinion. Ignoring the natural forcings is a dangerous mistake. The GSM on its own will drop global temperatures (most likely disastrously). Combine that with the PDO riding at the bottom of its cold phase, the AMO dropping into its cold phase and the ENSO just initiating its cold phase (La Nina) and we are in for some cold years/decades. And that does not roll in the cooling effects of elevated volcanic activity (common during GSMs), a Beaufort Gyre freshwater release and Bill Gates dimming the sun through geoengineering.

It is unfortunate our governments are worrying about a potential CO₂ warming problem a century from now when a real existential Climate Change threat is directly in front of us. The CO₂ warming exists only in the unverified virtual reality world created by the IPCC computer modellers. As I may have mentioned before, there is no empirical Temperature/CO₂ dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. Empirical data is a basic scientific requirement. The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) alarmist narrative does not have an empirical data set that moves that narrative from a religious belief to a scientific principle.

While I have actively tried bringing Common Sense (OPPS-9) to the “Climate Change” discussion for many years, I have always had some hope that Mother Nature would bring the world’s general population and our political leaders back to reality. Mother Nature has been doing her part (look at the data not the propaganda). On the other hand, our politicians (that includes the IPCC and all their CAGW alarmist entourage (media, “climate scientists”, billionaire financiers, etc.) have all tripled down. The COVID-19 financial fallout is a game changer that requires a financial policy that addresses the resulting economic and social devastation. Continuing down the Green New Deal (GND) highway will only exasperate that economic and social dystopia. So, why not delay the GND spending for a decade? That delay will not lead to a global catastrophe. The 2015 Paris Accord (OPS-17) temperature reduction would only be 0.17 °C assuming their science is correct, and every country complies fully. A 10-year delay would mean temperatures in 2100 will be a whopping 0.02 °C higher. Ooooh scary!

I have always felt that Canada as a rich country would be able to ride out the GSM without too much damage despite the bulk of our agricultural production going offline. That optimism has been severely reduced post-COVID-19. Our Prime Minister has compromised our financial health severely over the last year, with no plans for fiscal recovery (OPPS-8 – Canadian Deficits – November Update). He is in fact aggravating the situation by pushing the very expensive and unnecessary UN and World Economic Forum agendas. JT will use the WEF’s “Great Reset” as the accelerant to push his and the UN’s Agenda 21/2030 Agendas. These “Agendas” are the socialist/communist game plan to implement the UN’s one world (unelected/unaccountable/corrupt) totalitarian government. This should worry every law abiding, intelligent, tax paying citizen on this planet. I have included more discussion and links on this subject in my OPPS-10 (US-Canada Reimagined), OPPS-11 (Justin – New CO₂ Tax) and OPPS-12 (China Influence) posts.