CO2-Temperature Extrapolations

OPS-65 The never-ending diatribe coming from the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) alarmist crowd says our planet is burning up and we (through our emissions (primarily CO₂)) are the evil that is responsible for that horrible future we are apparently facing. They talk a lot, but they do not show you all the relevant empirical data or even a realistic representation of the future. They just continue to push their computer model projections despite their self admission that their models run too hot. They continue to include emission scenarios (ssp3-7.0 and ssp5-8.5 W/m²) that have been categorized as implausible by the IPCC and other researchers. Even the ssp2-4.5 computer projections (considered “Middle of the Road) run too hot when compared to both the University of Alabama, Huntsville satellite temperature data and the HadCRUT5 surface temperature data. Shown in the attached figures and discussed in more detail in my CSS-30 – CMIP6 Computer Models and OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science posts. A description of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (ssp) can be found on Wikipedia.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

This post focuses on three key areas of the planet. Those three areas (Antarctica, the Arctic (80° N) and Greenland) contain virtually all the world’s ice and are supposedly the areas that will warm up the fastest. According to NASA-GISS data, Greenland is warming at only ±1.0 °C/century. Even worse for the CAGW alarmist crowd, Antarctic temperatures (UAH Lower Troposphere) are rising at just ±0.13 °C/century. Neither of these massive, continental ice sheets is melting anytime soon and if they do, CO₂ will play virtually no role in that melting. Under the impossible scenario where we burn all our fossil fuel reserves (oil, gas, and coal), we could only raise atmospheric CO₂ levels to the 1600 ppm level. The extrapolation shows us reaching those levels around 220 years from now. In the real world we will not reach those levels and our emission rates will gradually slow, extending any peak CO₂ concentration further into the future. On a separate note, CO₂ climate sensitivity is very likely around 1 °C per CO₂ doubling (i.e.: the limit to CO₂ warming from here is roughly 2.0 °C). Not dangerous, not an emergency! More detail in my CSS-21 – CO₂ – Visualized Temperature Contribution post.

The Arctic temperatures are increasing at a higher rate (2.49 °C/century), but we still have centuries before that warming would cause any real problems. That statement assumes that the CAGW alarmist’s simplistic, unscientific narrative (i.e.: human emissions (primarily CO₂) are the primary climate driver) actually holds true. Given that temperatures fluctuated significantly for 10,000+ years over the pre-Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present) Holocene with virtually no CO₂ contribution, that narrative is questionable at best. The natural forcings (primarily solar (directly or indirectly)) responsible for those pre-MTR temperature fluctuations (shown on the CSS-21g slide and the attached image) were still active during the MTR and will continue to be active in the future (despite the alarmist’s unsubstantiated decree that they are negligible).

As I have mentioned many times before, we need to wake up as a society. We have some serious problems (energy, food, financial, supply chain, etc. crises) that will get worse and sadly they appear to be deliberately created and/or are being ignored. Colder, potentially dangerous temperatures are coming over the next few decades (based on well established natural solar and ocean cycles). We (Canadians as a whole) need to stop allowing our leadership to push the uneconomic, unscientific CAGW alarmist ideology down our throats when there are real and very serious problems being ignored (if not actively encouraged). There is NO Climate Emergency (at least not one related to CO₂ warming). Could there be a Climate Emergency due to Global Cooling over the next few decades? Yes, again based on natural cycles. But as always, anyone (scientist or not) can disprove my position by putting forward an empirical CO₂/Temperature dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. Empirical data is a basic Scientific Method requirement, something the CAGW alarmist community refuses to acknowledge, clinging to their computer models, the ones that run too hot and use implausible emission scenarios.

Here are some additional posts that provide further context to this discussion. The Wikipedia and the IPCC links are obviously slanted towards the CAGW alarmist narrative, but they have been referenced in and are, sadly, a part of the “climate change” discussion.

Wikipedia – Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Definitions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways

IPCC – AR6 Report (Summary for Policy Makers)

Click to access IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf

CLINTEL: World Climate Declaration – There is NO Climate Emergency

World Climate Declaration

CSS-21 – CO₂ – Visualized Temperature Contribution

CO2 – Visualized Temperature Contribution

CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO₂

Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

CSS-30 – CMIP6 Computer Models

CMIP6 Climate Models

OPS-52 – Solar Activity – NOAA Forecast

Solar Activity – NOAA Forecast

OPS-55 – The State of Climate Sciencehttps://climatechangeandmusic.com/the-state-of-climate-science/