Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

CSS-29 I have put together a couple of simple spreadsheet climate models in the past (OPS-8 – Basic Climate Model/Open Letter Addendum and CSS-16 – Central England Temperature – Model). The first model used just the TSI and AMO. The second model added in CO₂. This post takes the next step and makes some predictions based on forecasted Total Solar Irradiance (TSI, as a proxy), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and CO₂ concentration. This model sets the CO₂ forcing based on an estimate of CO₂ climate sensitivity (ranging from 0 to 1.2 °C) and then allocates the TSI and AMO by percentages. Are these predictions all encompassing? No, there are a lot of parameters that are not included but they do give the reader a general concept of what to expect as we move forward. Over the next few decades, temperatures will be dropping despite the continued CO₂ increases. How much the temperature drops (I am using roughly 1.5 °C, but the drop could be significantly higher than that) and how long the temperatures will remain cold is open for debate.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

We (or more accurately, our ideological “leaders”) are constantly and ever more vigorously pushing uneconomic and unnecessary emission reductions. Temperatures will be falling, not rising for several decades. Virtually all the money spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, Net Zero, Green New Deals, Inflation Reduction Acts, etc., etc. has been and will continue to be a complete waste of our children and grandchildren’s money. Their futures are, in my opinion, being maliciously squandered. The IPCC has come out and recognized that their models are running too hot and declared that the RCP8.5 emission scenario (historically used as the business-as-usual case) is highly improbable (more detail in my OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science post).

Bottomline, the IPCC is de facto telling us that there is no Climate Emergency (based on rising temperatures). And that is based on their simplistic, unscientific, focused adherence to CO₂ forcing. Most of that CO₂ forcing is solar forcings (directly and indirectly) that the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) alarmists have knowingly chosen to ignore. In the real world, there is a looming Climate Emergency, the real threat is colder not higher temperatures. Temperatures are headed lower as we move into the AMO’s cold phase and move further into the forecasted Grand Solar Minimum (GSM). If we get some large volcanic eruptions, the Beaufort Gyre release and/or we have some significant mid-latitude ice migrations, we will be in serious trouble. If we were just dealing with CO₂ warming, we could say we have time and we should take that time to #delaythegreen spending. The reality, we need to stop spending money on stupid “green” initiatives immediately and start addressing the food, energy and supply chain crises that are already right in front of us. The cooling temperatures are just going to magnify those problems (many of which were a direct result of those same stupid historical green spending initiatives).

We need to wake up as a society. We have some serious problems and sadly they appear to be deliberately created.