US-Canada – 2022 Forest Fires

OPS-67 Here is the yearly fire statistics update. As usual, there is little change in the North American trends. The number of fires in both the US and Canada are both still trending down and the acreage burnt has remained virtually flat for the last two decades in the US and the last four decades in Canada (despite continuously rising CO₂ concentrations). These trends (and the historical data, in general) do not support the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) alarmist fire narrative. Yet, every major fire has been and will continue to be, erroneously attributed to “Climate Change”.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The 4.31 million hectares (Mha) burnt in Canada in 2021 was a relatively bad year, but nowhere near the 7.38 Mha in 1995. For those that do not remember, we experienced the Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” in 2021 and all the climate rhetoric that came with it. Yes, it was hot and there were some devastating fires but the event was localized, relatively short and just another weather, not climate event. The global temperatures at the time were only 0.2 °C above the 1979-to-2000-year average (i.e.: the globe was not burning up). The Canadian alarmist choir was somewhat silent in 2020 when only 0.23 Mha burnt or even last year when a modest 1.47 Mha went up in smoke. So, will we hear the shrill screams of impending “climate change” doom this summer? Yes, more than likely but the fire component will depend on what actually happens. This year’s burn acreage can easily be higher or lower, but when I do this again next year, the trends will be relatively unchanged. CO₂ will still not be driving the fire statistics and those fire statistics will not be headed towards any Armageddon scenarios.

Despite the obvious contradiction to the simplistic, unscientific CAGW alarmist narrative, I do not like the fire data as a representative parameter for “climate change”. Humanity plays a major role in those fire statistics but the CO₂ component (through whatever temperature contribution it may provide) is easily overpowered by the many other human influences (forest management practices (past and present), prescribed burns, spontaneous accidental and deliberate (arson) initiations, encroachment on natural habitat, fire fighting techniques, etc.). That sounds similar to the role of CO₂ in Climate Change. CO₂ fluctuations contribute to global temperature, but the contribution is masked (easily overpowered) by the much more important and more powerful natural forcings (primarily solar and solar related). Still waiting for anyone (scientist or not) to put forward an empirical CO₂/Temperature dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. A basic Scientific Method requirement that does not exist.

Here are some additional posts that provide further context to this discussion. The CSS-17 post is the most recent and most comprehensive.

Climate Short Story (CSS)

CSS-17 – Forest Fires – March 2022

Forest Fires – March 2022

One Page Summary (OPS)

OPS-28 – Forest Fire Discussion

Forest Fire Discussion

OPS-29 – Forest Fire Discussion II

Forest Fire Discussion II

OPS-33 – California Fires – September 2020

California Fires – September 2020