Temperature Averaging Effects

OPS-44 This post does not present any new data. The primary purpose is to show the general effect of averaging the data and the potential issues on simply plotting data together from two separate time scales (with no context provided). The classic example of this is the “Hockey Stick” (which took some tree ring data over the last 2,000 years and just layered on the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 – Present)). The Hockey Stick has more problems than just joining together two disparate data sets and not synchronizing the averaging techniques. I am not relitigating all the “Hockey Stick” issues in this post.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

When tacking the MTR onto the Holocene temperature record, you must keep in mind that the Holocene data is based on points that can be decades apart. The MTR data is presented monthly. If the MTR is plotted on the same natural averaging time scales as the Holocene, the temperature spike is greatly muted. The UAH satellite temperature dataset is included as an averaging example. Using a 3-year average, the many sharp temperature spikes in the UAH data disappear. Many of those temperature spikes are like the supposedly dangerous 1 ºC temperature rise out of the Little Ice Age (LIA). I wonder why they called that period the LIA? It certainly could not be because the temperatures were colder than normal, could it? Additional discussion on the UAH temperature data can be accessed in my OPS-37 – UAH – November 2020 Update post.

For illustrative purposes, I divided the MTR record (adjusted for Greenland) by 4. Essentially that correction would be equivalent to roughly 0.5 ºC (i.e.: half of the warming out of the LIA). The actual averaging suppression could be closer to 0.25 ºC, based on the UAH example. Ultimately, the amount of averaging suppression does not change the general arguments. As more suppression is imposed, the case that the IPCC computer models are useless just gets stronger. When CO₂ is plotted with the temperature on a scale reflecting the CAGW alarmist point of view (i.e.: the MTR temperature rise is due almost exclusively to CO₂), the serious model deficiencies are readily apparent. The temperature fluctuates significantly over the Holocene (regardless of the Holocene temperature data set used). CO₂ is essentially flat over the same period. The natural cycles (solar related) causing those Holocene temperature fluctuations were still active through the MTR (accounting for a significant portion if not most of the MTR warming). They are still active now and they will continue to be active in the future.

The only place the natural cycles are not active is in the virtual reality world created by the IPCC computer modelers. The models react almost exclusively to changing CO₂ levels (i.e.: natural forcings are virtually zero, OPS-22 – Computer Models – Real Simple). Those pre-MTR Holocene temperature fluctuations will continue in the future. Unfortunately, the IPCC computer models are incapable of forecasting the potentially devastating temperature drops that are about to occur over the next couple of decades as we move further into the Grand Solar Minimum. Texas (and the unnecessary deaths) was not a surprise for those who recognize the solar cycles and their impact on the climate. Using these useless computer models for policy decisions is not only stupid, but it has also become criminal. These UN-IPCC driven green policies are killing people all over the world (OPPS-7 – CAGW Implications). These green policies are destroying western economies and the totalitarian UN Agendas are just accelerating that push using policy add-ons like the WEF’s “Great Reset”. All at a time when we should be focusing on fixing our COVID-19 related financial problems and putting the unnecessary CO₂ emission reductions on hold (#delaythegreen, OPPS-9 – Common Sense).