Solar Activity – NOAA Forecast

OPS-52 The last Climate Short Story (CSS-12 – Cosmic Ray Discussion) included a simple plot that deserves to be highlighted on its own merit. NOAA (definitely not a climate skeptic institution) has come out with a forecast for Sunspot Cycles 25 and 26. They expect Cycle 25 to be roughly the same as Cycle 24 (i.e.: low solar activity). But Cycle 26 shows a full blown Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) with no forecasted sunspots. That has not happened since the 1600’s (i.e.: the Maunder Minimum). This was a very cold period in human history (characterized by severe cold weather crop losses, mass starvation, civil strife, plagues, etc.). The NASA official Forecast only covers Cycle 25, so they appear to be hedging their bets. But the narratives are already being put into place.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

NASA has acknowledged that a GSM is coming, but as per the current CAGW narrative, they are quick to assure the CAGW alarmist base that the relentless CO₂ induced temperature rise will continue largely unabated. After all, the sun plays virtually no role in the CAGW alarmist virtual reality created by the IPCC computer models (OPS-22 – Computer Models – Real Simple). In the real world, solar activity (through both direct and indirect means) has dominated climate change for hundreds of million of years with minor, undetectable contributions from CO₂. Those natural/solar forcings did not suddenly shut down during the MTR. They were active throughout the MTR and will be active going forward. NOAA is acknowledging the GSM. Unfortunately, the computer models do not.

The computer models are essentially useless. They simply cannot model the Holocene temperatures. They are programmed to respond almost exclusively to CO₂ changes, but CO₂ is virtually flat through the entire Holocene while temperatures fluctuate dramatically. My Holocene Logic posts (CSS-1, CSS-2, CSS-4, OPS-26, OPS-27, OPS-36, OPS-44, OPS-51 and OPS-53 (coming soon)) provide the data/discussion backup. Expanding the time scales out to the Cenozoic Era (CSS-10 – A Ride Through the Cenozoic) or Phanerozoic Eon (CSS-12 – Cosmic Ray Discussion) does not help the CAGW alarmist narrative. Temperature and CO₂ do not generally correlate over these time scales. And there are no indications that CO₂ is driving climate. The sun and celestial events drive the climate on these scales. The minor CO₂ contributions to temperature (rising or falling) are lost in the much more dominant and important natural forcings. Our “leaders” continue to ignore the real and existential climate change threat (declining temperatures) we will face over the next few decades to focus on CO₂ emission reduction (fixing a problem a century from now that does not exist). The minor warming and fertilization properties that rising CO₂ brings will ultimately be very beneficial. Prior to the devastating COVID-19 induced financial issues, I had hope that countries like Canada were rich enough to survive the CAGW alarmist stupidity. I do not have that hope anymore. Mother Nature is already showing that the CAGW narrative is just that, a narrative for those that can think past whatever the current weather (not climate) event is dominating the current news cycle. A good leader would #delaythegreen initiatives (OPPS-14) and fix the financial mess we have unnecessarily been thrown into. Delaying the ridiculously expensive, uneconomic, ineffective green initiatives (OPPS-9 – Common Sense, OPS-17 – Paris Accord 2015 and OPS-45 – CO₂ Emissions and the IPCC) will produce no measurable change in the temperatures in 2100. Unfortunately, we do not have good leaders. We have a lot of idiotological UN globalist cheerleaders pushing Great Resets/UN Agendas that will only line the pockets of the elite while our (the taxpayer’s) standard of living continues to decline. We are not headed in a good direction. Wake up people.