Sea Level Rise – Is There Acceleration?

CSS-33 One of the bigger climate change scares has always been sea level rise. At best an irrational fear. Even in the worst-case emission scenarios ((SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) dubbed as implausible by the IPCC), sea level rise of roughly 1.2 meters (by 2150) would not result in any deaths. Everyone is capable of outrunning rising sea levels and low-lying areas can be protected from sea level rise with today’s technology. Current sea level rise (3.4 mm/year, (0.47 meters by 2150) is not scary and can be dealt with through adaptation (assuming sea levels continue to rise). Given that sea levels in general are reactive to temperature, what would be the logical sea level response as temperatures drop over the next few decades? The answer is simple. Sea Level rise would slow down and/or begin to fall depending on the magnitude of the temperature decline. In the real world, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is entering its 30-year cold phase and the Grand Solar Minimum will drop temperatures over the next few decades.

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In the real world, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is entering its 30-year cold phase and the Grand Solar Minimum will drop temperatures over the next few decades. Therefore, in the real world, sea level will very likely level off and/or drop over the next few decades. Only in the virtual world created by the IPCC models (those models that they self admittedly say run too hot), do sea levels rise uninterrupted. All the sea level projections rise faster than any statistically significant historical data extrapolations, much like the global temperature rise projections (covered in my CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models and Dr. John Christy (CSS-6) posts).

The answer to the question posed above is yes (based on current historical data). However, that acceleration is minor, well within natural fluctuations (i.e.: sea levels rose just as fast in the early 20^th century (despite only minor human CO₂ emissions) and is likely to disappear with the temperature drops over the next few decades due to AMO and GSM cooling. Sea Levels (and temperatures) fluctuated significantly throughout the Holocene despite virtually flat CO₂ levels. Another blatant example of non-correlation between CO₂ and Temperature/Sea Level. Longer term sea level information was covered in my CSS-18 – Sea Level and Climate Drivers post.

The empirical data, viewed in its entirety, shows that CO₂ is not a significant climate driver. CO₂ does correlate to temperature on some time scales, but temperature is driving CO₂ levels (not the other way around). CO₂ generally does not correlate to changes in sea level or most other scare tactic parameters (i.e.: forest fires, drought, extreme weather, etc.). Bottomline, the “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming” (CAGW) alarmist narrative is dangerous and unscientific. Allowing the CAGW narrative to persist will leave our children and grandchildren’s future in serious jeopardy. It is time to wake up people. The people pushing the simplistic, unscientific CAGW alarmist narrative are just one aspect of the problem. Those ignoring the problem are a bigger part of the problem.

For more perspective and more detailed analysis, you can check out some of the following posts.

CSS-6 – John Christy – January 2021 Update

John Christy – January 2021

CSS-18 – Sea Level and Climate Drivers

Sea Levels and Climate Drivers

CSS-29 – Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO₂

Climate Model – TSI-AMO-CO2

CSS-30 – CMIP6 Climate Models

CMIP6 Climate Models

CSS-32 – UAH Lower Troposphere Temperature – November 2022https://climatechangeandmusic.com/uah-lt-temperature-november-2022/