Late Holocene – CAGW CO2/Temperature

OPS-51 This post is an extension of my Holocene Logic Series. The large plot focuses on the last 4,000 years of the Holocene. The planet’s temperature has (in general) been declining steadily off the Holocene Climate Optimum (driven by the Milankovitch cycles, primarily Obliquity). The temperature fluctuations (on every temperature data set) reflect the shorter solar cycles. CO₂ is a total non-player through this period since the atmospheric CO₂ levels are virtually flat until the Modern Temperature Record (MTR). As per the most of my Holocene Logic Series, the CO₂ levels are plotted on a scale that reflects the CAGW alarmist Narrative that the MTR temperature rise is due to Anthropogenic processes (primarily CO₂ emissions). A lot of temperature fluctuations happening without CO₂’s help (pre-MTR) and a lot of MTR temperature rise occurring before any significant Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions occurred (86%+ of human emissions occurred post-1950). Human temperature influence would be minor pre-1950. Post-1950, a significant portion (potentially most) of the warming would be due to ocean influences (the AMO, ENSO and PDO for example). So, how much influence do we have? There is no simple answer, but a deep review of all the available data shows that CO₂ is indeed a FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas (CSS-7 for more detail).

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The three smaller plots focus in on Little Ice Age and the MTR. The Upper Plot is the CAGW alarmist Narrative (i.e.: CO₂ emissions are responsible for the MTR temperature rise). This is the same data as the 4,000-year plot. The middle plot uses a CO₂ scale that reflects the more reasonable position that CO₂ is responsible for roughly 40% of the MTR warming. This would correspond to a historical Climate Sensitivity of roughly 1 °C (the IPCC uses 1.2 °C). The lower plot assumes that CO₂’s radiative absorption band has become increasingly saturated and CO₂’s greenhouse gas capacity (climate sensitivity) has already been reduced significantly and will continue declining. Remember, 86%+ of human emissions have occurred post-1950. CO₂’s climate sensitivity is not a settled science, so these plots are for illustrative purposes only (but still very representative).

Ultimately, regardless of which scenario you choose, the effects of CO₂ are minor to negligible. There is NO scientifically based (i.e.: empirical data) indication that increased CO₂ levels can lead to dangerous temperature levels (let alone drive the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale). The only place that “dangerous” temperatures exist is in the unsubstantiated, virtual reality world created by the IPCC’s computer models (using their artificially inflated CO₂ climate sensitivities (ranging from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C (quite the range for “settled science”)). Also, strange that those “dangerous” levels are significantly less than the temperatures associated with many other periods of more abundant life. The planet’s temperature (and for the record, CO₂) has been significantly higher than current conditions for 85% of the last 600 million years (OPS-41 – Geological Time Scale Visualization). A recently updated Phanerozoic Temperature (Scotese 2021)/CO₂ (GEOCARBSULF – 2005) data plot is available in a more recent post (CSS-10 – A Ride Through The Cenozoic).