Hurricane Update – 2021 Season

OPS-57 Another hurricane season has passed us by (in the North Atlantic). The 2021 season itself was quiet and so was, predictably, the media. Gratefully, we were not constantly bombarded with the alarmist hype this year that accompanied last year’s forecasts of potential storm/hurricane records. The number of North Atlantic storms did hit a record in 2020 but dropped significantly in 2021. The number of North Atlantic hurricanes was high (but not a record) in 2020, and the numbers dropped back to the long-term trend in 2021. But just to ensure the “Fact Checkers” do not accuse me of misinformation, I will and always have acknowledged that the North Atlantic storm/hurricane trends have been increasing since the turn of the 19^th century (at 7.8 and 3.2 per century, respectively). That upward trend began 50 years before human emissions contributed much to the atmosphere (86%+ of human emissions occurred post-1950) and has remained relatively constant for the last 120+ years.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

And just to ensure we have all the right context covered; I need to point out that the North Atlantic storm/hurricane totals do not reflect the Global situation. On a global basis, storms have been declining at the rate of 30.9/century since the mid-60s. And hurricanes have declined at 20.5/century rate since the mid-80s. The last time I checked, the atmosphere is continuous across the planet (with some minor fluctuations in atmospheric CO₂ levels locally). CO₂ cannot be causing storm/hurricane increases in one area when most of the world is experiencing much more significant decreases. If CO₂ is contributing to global storm/hurricane frequency, that effect is a net positive for humanity. The warming from 1975 to the early 20^th century was most likely the reason for the declining storm/hurricane activity. When the planet warms, most of the warming occurs in the higher latitudes, reducing the temperature differential between the poles and the equator. That temperature differential is an important factor in major storm generation scenarios. Lower temperature differentials lead to fewer storms/hurricanes and vice versa.

Is the warming due to CO₂ alone? Not about to get into the detail of that discussion here. But could the CO₂ be contributing significantly to the 1979 to the early 20^th century warming. Sure. Could the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) 30-year warming phase from 1975 to 2005 be contributing significantly to the above warming. Entirely possible and very likely. And could the strong el Niños (the warm phase of the el Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) beginning in 1998 be contributing significantly to the above warming. Also, entirely possible. Solar activity momentum (Total Solar Irradiance, TSI – 20 year moving average) peaked around 1950 and would therefore have little to no effect on rising temperatures. However, the gradual TSI declines (beginning around 2000) could easily have contributed to the 2002 – 2015 temperature “Pause”. CO₂, AMO and ENSO were all generally positive. A couple of deep short lived La Niña’s (the cool phase of ENSO) may have also contributed a bit to the “Pause”. All that info/discussion is visible in the attached plot with more detailed discussion available in my Open Letter Addendum.

What happens going forward? The AMO starts dropping into its 30-year cool phase. The ENSO is already in its cool La Nina phase (which tend to be relatively short-lived). CO₂ will continue to rise and will contribute some warming. But realistically, how much warming can it contribute? That depends on the CO₂ Climate Sensitivity (a very unsettled aspect of Climate Science). I will not include that discussion here (because this discussion does not need that additional ammunition). For those that want that info, they can review my CSS-3 – CO₂ Climate Sensitivity post. The last AMO cooling phase (1945 – 1975) easily overwhelmed the CO₂ warming. But given that CO₂ forcings get weaker as atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increase, you might want to consider that the temperatures might just decline for a decade or two (even with an overly aggressive homogenization program). And that is without taking the widely forecasted Grand Solar Minimum (GSM, we are just entering) into account. The GSM temperature declines could be very significant and dangerous (which would be consistent with historical GSMs). The temperature declines over the next decade or two are the existential Climate Change we should be focused on. Sadly, we are not.

Given that the global temperatures will very likely be declining for the next decade or two, the CAGW alarmist crowd may finally get their increased storm/hurricane frequencies. But for the next few years, all the storm/hurricane trends will remain primarily unchanged (as it has since I set out on this journey). We will still experience the alarmist fear propaganda every time a major storm hits, the silence when the storm activity is low (for instance the 12 years (2005 – 2017) where the US was not hit by a major hurricane) and the North Atlantic trends will still be rising. Any media, political, academic individual/institution that claims that CO₂ is causing more storms/hurricanes is either lying or is ignorant of the empirical data. I can confidently forecast that next year’s review will look almost identical to this year.