Forest Fires – 2023 Update

OPS-76 The 2023 Fire Season in Canada was significantly more active than normal. Although the number of fires (roughly 6,550) was just slightly higher than normal, the acreage burnt (18.5 million hectares (MH)) was over 8 times Canada’s average yearly burn acreage (roughly 2.25 MH). Unsurprisingly, the alarmist community pounced on these fires as evidence of the catastrophic climate change that we are already living through. Just one major problem. Climate Change is measured over decades, centuries, and millennia, not days, weeks, months, or years. Also, with respect to Climate Change, looking at a single event or a single year is totally unscientific and disingenuous. The trends are far more important (the longer the better). And unfortunately for the alarmist community, the forest fire trends are generally down or statistically flat.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The forest fire acreage burnt trend in Canada had been statistically flat up to the end of 2022. With the unusually high 2023 numbers, the full data set linear regression suggests that forest fire acreage burnt is increasing at 5.1 MH/century. But as recent as the end of 2020 (a record low year (0.23 MH), the acreage burnt showed a 0.14 MH/century decline. CO₂ is absolutely not responsible for acreage burnt increasing from 0.23 MH to 18.5 MH in just 3 years. Canadian 2023 acreage burnt is an anomaly not a trend and climate change (as defined by CO₂ emissions) has very little to do with the 2023 spike.

This acreage burnt spike is not unique from a global perspective. Australia had a similar but much larger spike in their 1974/75 bush fire season (112 MH were burnt). Proportionately that would be 160 MH relative to Canada’s size (8.65 times worse than our 18.5 MH). And if I am not mistaken, CO₂ levels were significantly lower at just 330 ppm. You might also have noticed that the media has been silent on Australia’s bush fire season. Not surprising, given that less than 1.0 MH have burned so far.

The US 2023 fire statistics were also unable to spark an alarmist outcry with just 2.61 Macres (1.06 MH) burnt (the lowest this century despite steadily rising CO₂ levels). That is down from 10.12 Macres (4.10 MH) in 2020. Over the last two decades, US acreage burnt has been trending down (opposite to the alarmist narrative and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations). But even these numbers pale in comparison to the 40+ Macres/year burnt in the 1930s and 145 Macres/year burnt in the pre-industrial area. Obviously, CO₂ has no correlation to acreage burnt in the US.

But as with all things “Climate Change”, the global numbers are more important than any specific country. And again, unfortunately for the alarmist community, the trends are statistically flat and/or declining depending on the time scale used. Over the 1982 – 2018 period, the global acreage burnt trend has been generally flat. Over the last two decades plus (this century), the trend has been declining. Again, despite steadily rising CO₂ concentrations.

General society needs to wake up soon. Extreme weather events are not getting worse when viewed globally (or even for localized large land masses). The Forest Fire statistics discussed in this post are just one of the examples showing the media/political/academic mis/disinformation (more likely outright lies) thrown out on the Climate Change subject. The attached plot just shows the trendlines for a wide variety of extreme weather events (normalized so they can be shown together). More details and data links are available in my CSS-52 – Extreme Weather Events post. The empirical extreme weather event data simply does not support the “Global Warming” alarmist narrative. The opposite is true!

Continuing to buy into the “Global Warming” alarmist narrative will lead to a totalitarian dystopia that has been planned for society for decades. Remember, you will own nothing and be happy (living on your insect-based diet, confined to your 15-minute city). The whole climate change agenda is designed to influence and exert control over energy and food supplies (deliberately and unnecessarily raising prices), medical supplies and practices (coerced vaccination, lockdowns, etc.), finances (frozen bank accounts, CBDCs, inflation, etc.), travel/transportation (vaccine passports, EV mandates, etc.) and a host of other facets of our lives. Society is being conditioned to accept lockdowns and other control mandates. You do not have to look any further than the current World Health Organization (WHO) treaty negotiations. Should that treaty be passed in May 2024, the WHO will have the right to lock down the signatory countries at the first sign of any health threat (which could include “threats” as diverse as “climate change”). If you thought the COVID-19 lockdowns were bad, you are really not going to like the lockdowns imposed by an ideological, incompetent, unelected, unaccountable, totalitarian organization like the WHO.

The few of the important alarmist narrative shortcomings are summarized below.

There is no empirical CO₂/Temperature data that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale (a basic Scientific Method requirement).

There is no global empirical data that shows extreme weather events are rising with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (the opposite trend is predominantly true).

There is no justification to use the IPCC computer models for scientific, let alone policy purposes. The modelers’ themselves acknowledge that their projections run way too hot and the IPCC has deemed that their implausibly high RCP8.5 emission scenario has a low likelihood of happening. Current emission scenarios have been running below the IPCC’s RCP4.5 emission case (generally considered a reasonable target). Definitely not a crisis.

The natural forcings (primarily solar and solar related) are effectively ignored by the alarmist community, even though the natural forcings can be used to model the Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the present) more accurately.

There is NO Climate Emergency (at least not due to warming). Both the solar and ocean cycles (the natural radiative forcings the alarmists have effectively/knowingly chosen to ignore) are headed into their cold phases. As a result, temperatures will fall, not rise over the next few decades.

Given the blistering cold experienced this winter already, through much of the Northern Hemisphere, it has become abundantly clear that Canada is not ready for a completely renewable grid (assuming we could ever get there technically and/or financially). This recent cold snap (like the unusually high temperatures in the last half of 2023) is just a weather event. But Calgary has not seen these temperatures since the Ice Age is Coming Scare (IAICS) back in the late 60s/early 70s. And what caused that scare? A very minor dip in solar activity (Sunspot Cycle 20) and more importantly the ocean cycles cold phases (despite rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations). Are we headed for a repeat of the IAICS or something more dangerous. With the solar activity forecasted to be in the Dalton or even Maunder Minimum (the last Grand Solar Minimum (GSM)) ranges, we can reasonably expect the same much colder temperatures and shorter growing seasons that led to mass starvation and societal upheaval through those historically cold periods. The combined GSM and cold ocean cycle phases will easily overpower any minor CO₂ warming.

When the temperatures get down into -40 to -50 °C range (as they did last week), the wind turbines and solar panels provide little to no power. Adding additional renewable capacity will not add to the power supply because the wind is not generally blowing, and the sun is not shining when you need it the most. Electric vehicles also have a few major issues at these low temperatures. To currently survive Canadian winters and whatever additional future cold gets thrown at us, we need oil, gas and coal operations that can supply 100% of our power when needed. A reality that was just experienced. Throwing additional EV mandates on top of our current grid requirements will just compound that reality.

It is time to wake up to the ideological failures of the Climate Change narratives before it’s too late (if it isn’t already). The taxpayers of this world (that includes you) are being asked to spend trillions of dollars per year on a problem that does not exist (based on the available empirical data). A stupid expenditure level that will not improve anyone’s standard of living and will have no measurable effect on the climate or temperatures experienced at the end of the century. Although to be fair, those additional trillions over the next few years will ultimately bankrupt our economies and we will not have the funds to continue the insane pursuit of these unnecessary green initiatives (NetZero, Green New Deal, ESG, etc., etc.).

Here are some additional articles/papers/posts that provide further context to this discussion.

Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) – There is NO Climate Emergency

Clintel Climate Intelligence

Climate Short Story (CSS)

CSS-17 – Forest Fires – March 2022

Forest Fires – March 2022

CSS-30 – CMIP6 Computer Models

CMIP6 Climate Models

CSS-51 – Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings

Soon-Connolly – Solar Forcings

CSS-52 – Extreme Weather Events

Extreme Weather Events

CSS-53 – CO₂’s Moneyball Moment

CO2’s Moneyball Moment

One Page Summary (OPS)

OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science

The State of Climate Science

OPS-67 – US-Canada – 2022 Forest Fires

US-Canada – 2022 Forest Fires

One Page Political Summary (OPPS)

OPPS-27 – A Single Event is NOT a Trend

A Single Event is NOT a Trend