CO2 – The FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas

CSS-7 This Climate Short Story (CSS) looks at the historical strength of CO₂’s ability to warm/cool the planet in relation to the other forcings acting during specific time periods. There is a simple reason that no empirical CO₂/Temperature data set showing CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale even exists. CO₂ can warm or cool the planet as it rises or falls. Unfortunately for the CAGW alarmist crowd, that mechanism (the CO₂ Climate Sensitivity (CCS)) has virtually never been strong enough to overpower the natural cycles (i.e.: solar activity (directly and/or indirectly)) and show up in the historical data. Essentially, rising CO₂ can slightly enhance the warming produced by rising natural cycles or marginally offset the cooling produced by declining natural cycles. The shorter version, CO₂ is a FECKLESS GreenHouse Gas!

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Over the shorter term (The Modern Temperature Record (MTR, 1850 to the Present), despite the non-stop media/political rhetoric has very little evidence of major, let alone dangerous CO₂ warming effects. For one thing, more than 86% of human CO₂ emissions did not occur until after 1950 (i.e.: roughly half of the MTR ±1 °C warming occurred before human CO₂ emissions could have had any significant effect). Post 1950, the temperatures fluctuated significantly despite steadily rising atmospheric CO₂ levels. Ocean cycles routinely overpowered or significantly enhanced whatever warming may have been provided by rising CO₂ levels (regardless of the temperature data set used). The AMO easily overpowered the CO₂ warming from 1945 -1975 and seriously enhanced (and potentially dominated) the warming from 1975 – 2000. The ENSO cycles (el Nino and La Nina) totally crush CO₂ over short intervals (a year or two), producing temperature swings that are similar to the MTR’s ±1 °C warming. Even minor dips in solar activity (Sunspot Cycle 20 (the 1970’s Ice Age is Coming scare) and the gradual decline in solar activity since 2005 (the “PAUSE”)) were sufficient to offset CO₂’s warming abilities. Takeaway – CO₂ is FECKLESS on this time scale.

Moving out further and looking at the full Holocene (the 10,000-year interglacial warm period we are living through) shows that the temperatures routinely fluctuated at similar and/or higher magnitudes than the MTR ±1 °C warming that is claimed to be so devastating. Which is strange given that the CO₂ remains virtually flat throughout the Holocene (with a relatively small recent uptick in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (when the vertical Temperature/CO₂ scales are synchronized to the CAGW alarmist viewpoint that CO₂ is responsible for most (if not all) MTR warming).

This is a good point to remind the CAGW alarmists that time began before 1850. Reading the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report easily highlights the IPCC and the CAGW alarmist community’s focus on the MTR period.

The IPCC computers are quite literally programmed to ignore virtually all the natural forcings (OPS-22 – Computer Models – Real Simple) and focus on the MTR. So, when did the IPCC programmers develop their God-like abilities to turn off natural forcings over the MTR and into the future? The timing is irrelevant because the only place that happens is in the virtual reality world they created with their programming (GIGO). In the Real World, the natural forcings are still active over the MTR and they will continue to be active in the future. The IPCC computer simulations have not been able to model temperatures accurately over the MTR, let alone historical temperatures over the Holocene. So, what makes anyone think they can predict future temperatures? They most certainly will not model the cooling temperatures that have and will continue occurring as we move further into the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) that we have just recently entered. That is an extremely incompetent and dangerous oversight (if they are unaware of the GSM) and a criminal act (if they are aware). Takeaway – CO₂ is FECKLESS on this time scale.

Now, let us move out a little further and review the data over the 800,000-year ice core records. On this time scale, CO₂ has no significant influence. Temperatures are driving the atmospheric CO₂ levels. As temperatures rise, CO₂ levels rise (with a centuries long time lag as the oceans outgas). When temperatures drop, CO₂ levels drop (with a millennia long time lag as the oceans reabsorb the CO₂). The Milankovitch cycles (solar related forcings, CSS-4 – Holocene and the Milankovitch Cycles) rule the temperature changes on these time scales and the temperatures subsequently drive the CO₂ levels. Takeaway – CO₂ is totally FECKLESS on this time scale.

One more big move out and we can look at the temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ levels over the last 550 million years. On this scale, there is NO correlation between global temperatures and CO₂ levels. Not much else to say. Takeaway – CO₂ is totally FECKLESS on this time scale as well. The CAGW alarmists can put forward as many computer projections as they want (GIGO). But until someone (scientist or not) puts forward an empirical CO₂/Temperature dataset that shows CO₂ driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale, they are just spouting their religious based beliefs not scientific principles. Without empirical data, the CAGW alarmist narrative can never be science based (OPS-47 – Fact Checks – Scientific Method).