Cenozoic Temperature – Where’s the Emergency?

OPS-60 This post puts the current 1.07 °C temperature rise since the pre-Industrial period (as per the IPCC AR6 report) in perspective. The original 2015 Paris Accord target was 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels (with a later, just as arbitrary adjustment to 1.5 °C). Using IPCC “science”, we might hit 3 °C if we stopped spending any money on greenhouse gas emission reduction. That would take us into the temperature levels humanity experienced as our civilizations were just developing. Those early civilizations survived and thrived during those warmer temperatures (the Holocene Climate Optimum and Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warm Periods). All without air conditioning. In contrast, civilization struggled during the cold periods (such as the Greek Dark Ages, the Dark Age, and the Little Ice Age). CO₂ was flat throughout those warm and cold periods. But, according to the IPCC computer models, CO₂ is the only significant climate driver. So, what could possibly be causing the global temperatures to fluctuate, if not CO₂?

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

The temperatures of the Holocene Climate Optimum were not considered a Climate Emergency. In fact, those temperatures were considered, as per the nomenclature, a Climate “Optimum”. So, how exactly are we in a “Climate Emergency”? But just for kicks, let us look back on the temperatures over the Cenozoic. Over that period, temperatures were significantly higher roughly 98% of the time. Yet somehow life managed to survive and thrive (in greater abundance than today’s levels). There were some life challenges due to a couple of celestial impacts (Popigai and Chesapeake Bay) along with those pesky deep ice ages that have persisted, 90% of the time, over the last few million years. As an aside another Deep Ice Age is on its way (but not likely in our lifetime, CSS-24 – Is the Holocene Really a New Epoch?). Life even survived and thrived through the Eocene Climate Optimum. Wait, are they calling a period 10 °C warmer than today a Climate Optimum? Yes, they still are and, gasp, CO₂ levels were also some five times higher than today.

So, no, there is no Climate Emergency. We will never reach the temperatures and CO₂ levels of the Eocene Climate Optimum (based on anthropogenic warming). And should nature thrust us in that direction, we will survive quite easily (providing our descendants do not make the same mistakes our current idiotological leadership seem to excel at).

I should clarify any statement above, where I have indicated that there is no Climate Emergency. Those statements are made based on the assumption (not mine) that the temperatures are going to keep rising. Those natural forces that caused the temperature fluctuations over the Holocene (with no CO₂ contribution) are still active. And those natural forces are almost universally pointed cooler (CSS-24g for a full list). The two biggest short-term impacts (over the next few decades) will be the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) we are just entering and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) transition to its cool phase. The temperature drops associated with these two events will be more than sufficient to take us into a true “Climate Emergency”. Combine that with the fiscal fallout from overspending and lockdowns during the COVID debacle and the unnecessary, uneconomic green spending (CO₂ emission reduction specifically, both pre, during and post-COVID), and we are headed to a future that will make our current serious food, energy, and supply chain crises look pleasant. Time to WAKE UP and stop wasting capital on a problem that does not exist. We are going to need all that capital just to provide basic needs. The green spending could and should be delayed for a decade or two. That delay would have no measurable effect on temperatures in 2100.