Basic Climate Model

OPS-8 The attached simple model (but by no means a definitive model) shows how easy it is to model modern temperatures without incorporating any CO2 forcing. This model uses only fluctuations in the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The weightings are TSI-75%/AMO-25% before 1945 and TSI-25%/AMO-75% post 1945. TSI has been relatively stable since 1945 so the AMO has had a stronger effect. NOTE the absolute value of TSI changes are very small (and only affect global temperatures a small amount) but they are indicative of the overall solar consequences that the earth is subject to (consequences that to date have been ignored by “climate scientists” but not by solar and astrophysicists). To be clear, I do believe that increased CO2 levels increase the global temperature but the magnitude of that effect is definitely not settled science. This statement is backed up by the historical data. No where in the historical record does CO2 show up as a primary driving force on the climate. CO2 effects are in that data but they’re hidden by the other, more dominant natural forces/cycles. Remember, it’s not science if the theory is not backed up with actual empirical data, it is religious dogma.

Computer modeling is also transforming to back up that statement. The CMIP5 computer protocol is being replaced with the CMIP6 protocol. CMIP5 uses only the TSI in their solar forcings (refer back to my NOTE in the first paragraph). CMIP6 incorporated more of the significant solar forcings (but not all) and they are finding that (as I have done) the temperature over the last 150 or so years can be modeled without CO2 forcings included. Imagine the outcry that is emanating from the “Global Warming” community.