Are the LA Fires Due to ‘Climate Change’?

January 21, 2025 rjdavison

CSS-65 – Are the LA Fires Due To Climate Change Download PDF

CSS-65 The January 2025 LA fires have been devastating and just like the 2023 Maui and 2024 Jasper, Canada fires, there has been plenty of commentary related to poor forest management, incompetent government officials and yes, unsurprisingly ‘climate change’. This post will not be adjudicating the direct human components associated with this tragedy. The post looks at the climate of LA (not the global climate) and shows that climate had very little to do with the LA fires specifically (much like the Maui situation). Human preparation was below standard, which is strange given that the All CO₂, All the Time alarmist narrative has been predicting (rightly or wrongly) this scenario for a long time. California (a leader in the green policy directives) should have been better prepared.

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The primary indicators of climate change that apply directly to the Los Angeles area are temperature, precipitation, sea levels, and fire. None of these parameters have shown significant long-term change over the last century plus. There are some significant short-term changes that are not on ‘climate change’ time scales and are certainly not due to CO₂. Temperatures in the 1880s, and 1930s were just as high as the recent (pre-2015) temperatures. The step increase in 2015 and subsequent decline is a function of ocean influences, not CO₂). Sea levels had a similar step increase in 2015, followed by a decline. The long-term sea level rise is linear (no acceleration, no perceptible CO₂ influence).

Precipitation levels have not changed substantially over the long-term but have fluctuated significantly above and below the slightly declining trend (0.64” per year per century). The early 20^th century was noticeably drier than current conditions. More recent precipitation levels have increased substantially since 1998 (especially during the rainy season (January to March) and December (the month that sets the stage for the fire risk in early January). Rainfall during the 2023 and 2024 rainy season was unusually high, which could be related to the significant water injection into the stratosphere by the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption in late 2021/22. December 2024 was anonymously dry but not due to climate change (or CO₂). That longer than normal dry stretch (8 months) kept the fire risk at extreme levels, but did not push the fire levels into the extreme level (which happens virtually every year, along with the Santa Ana winds). There were many years over the last century that had both higher temperatures and little to NO precipitation. LA did not burn down (or experience any notable fire storms) during any of those years.

In my opinion fire statistics are a poor indicator of climate change. Human activities (whether accidental, deliberately neglectful (power line right-of-way cleaning lapses, etc.) or outright arson) are ultimately responsible for most of the fires starting (over 90% in California). Our forest management practices and propensity to live in scenic forest situations are contributing significantly to the overall toll (financially, environmentally, and in human loss). When you build in an area that is prone to extreme fire risk, you are at risk of those fires. The bigger problems seemed to be in preparedness.

While fire statistics have been increasing in California overall since the early 1980s, they were also high in the first half of the 1900s (data that tends to be ignored to protect the narrative). Ocean cycles like the PDO and ENSO, warm and cool California noticeably more than CO₂. They also play a role in California’s humidity and precipitation levels.

To summarize, temperatures (homogenized) have increased but at a mediocre rate of 0.6 °C/century for most of LA’s history (1877 – 2013). Measured temperatures were a little more robust, but still only 1.2 °C/century. LA does NOT appear to be warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. There was a noticeable increase in 2014/15 (a major El Nino year) followed by a temperature decline to the present. That step increase and subsequent temperature decline have little to nothing to do with CO₂. The 2015 event and subsequent decline are also visible in the sea level data. Given the overall linear trend (i.e.: no acceleration), CO₂’s influence is also missing in the sea level changes. Moving to precipitation, the data also lacks any evidence of CO₂ influence. Yearly rainfall has been statistically flat over the entire history (slight decline from 1877 to 2024) but has been rising overall since 1998. The monthly data is a regular cycle of rain (December to April) and dry, extreme fire risk June to October. Late 2024 was very dry, but that scenario is an anomaly, not unusual nor unprecedented.

Climate change is at best a minor component in the January 2025 LA fires. There was a small gradual increase in temperature up until 2013 that could be attributed in part to CO₂, but there is also ocean cycles and solar activity that must be factored in. The general climatic conditions (hot and dry) that led to these fires are a normal occurrence in LA. And there are many historical examples that were hotter and/or drier for longer periods of time than 2024. There appears to be a lot more weather change happening in LA, than climate change.

Maybe it is time to direct financial resources to properly maintaining fire fighting equipment and personnel and/or adaptation measures rather than mitigation of a perceived problem a century from now. There is still and will never be empirical evidence that CO₂ increases will lead to catastrophic temperature increases.