Antarctica Average Consolidated Temperature (AACT)

August 14, 2023 rjdavison

CSS-45 – Antarctic Average Temperature – Holocene Download PDF

CSS-45 In my previous looks at Antarctica, I had used either the Vostok (earlier on) or the EPICA Dome C (more recently) ice core data for temperatures. I switched to the EPICA Dome C data when I realized that most of the Antarctic ice cores showed cooling around 8,000 years ago that did not appear to be present in Vostok (h/t Renee Hannon). This post looks at eight ice cores from around the Antarctic Continent and develops a representative Antarctica Average Consolidated Temperature (AACT).

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

Consolidating the various ice cores is no easy task. Thankfully, I came across a set of temperature reconstructions for seven of the locations used in developing the AACT. Buizert et al 2021 has provided the temperature data with a 40-year consistent time step (Antarctica 40,000 Year Temperature and Elevation Reconstructions). I have added the Vostok data (adjusted to the same 40-year time step). Those data files are available on NOAA’s Paleo Data Search site. As part of the analysis, I compared the EPICA Dome C profile to the AACT. Although there are some differences in the two curves, the general discussions from any of my previous posts are still relevant. I looked at three different normalizations to develop the AACT (any of which could be used). I settled on normalizing to the average temperature of each location over the last 15,000 years (pre-1950, effectively the Holocene Interglacial Warm Period). A period where most of humanity’s technological development occurred. The other normalization options were the current temperature (1950) of the temperature peak at 14,400 years BP (present on all the curves to some degree).

I do get into a little more technical detail on the AACT development, but I will not expand on those discussions in this overview. With an Antarctic average temperature, I can look for correlations that better represent the entire continent. The last slide lays the Steinhilber 9,400-year TSI Reconstruction over the AACT. The correlations are interesting, given that CO₂ over the Holocene is virtually flat if we are to assume that the CAGW alarmist narrative is true (i.e.: the 1.07 °C temperature rise is due to 135 ppm CO₂ concentration increase from pre-industrial levels). I will expand on that discussion in a near future post. Regardless, this data ends in 1950 while 86%+ of our emissions occurred post-1950. Humanity obviously has very little to do with any of the Holocene temperature fluctuations shown in this data. That includes the 200-year temperature rise out of the LIA beginning around 1750 (long before we (us useless eaters) could have had any noticeable effect, regardless of “the science”).

These Holocene temperature fluctuations are primarily natural occurrences. The natural forcings (primarily solar related (direct and indirect)) were still active post-1950 and will continue to be active in the future. Just not in the climate models that have been self-acknowledged to run way too hot and use implausibly high emission scenarios (OPS-55 – The State of Climate Science). There is simply no scientific proof (i.e.: empirical data) that shows CO₂ to be a primary climate driver, let alone that rising CO₂ levels could lead to catastrophic temperature increases (in the real world). When all the available data is considered objectively, the bigger threat lies with cooling temperatures. We, society, are sleep walking into a future that we are not prepared for. We need to wake up soon! In my opinion, a good starting point would be voting out all our global WEF/UN candidates.