Alberta Electrical Power – 2023

November 19, 2024 rjdavison

CSS-63 – Alberta Electrical Power 2023 Download PDF

CSS-63 This post takes a somewhat detailed look at Alberta’s electrical grid. Generation data (on an hourly basis for every generation option) for 2023 was downloaded from the Alberta Energy System Operator’s (AESO) data site. This analysis looks into the power generation distribution (natural gas, coal, wind, solar, etc.) and finishes with a summary of Randy Stubbings’ recent PowerPoint presentation “Net Zero and the Future Power Grid”. Spoiler Alert: There is little to no chance that Alberta’s electrical grid can conform to the Net Zero ideology without leaving a devastating debt burden for our children and grandchildren.

#climatechange #delaythegreen #globalwarming #showusthedata

Main Takeaways

Alberta’s electrical grid is highly dependent on natural gas (fluctuating between 60 and 75%, averaging 68.7% in 2023). Current Maximum Capacity – 13,223 MW
Coal/Dual Fuel held down 2^nd place, supplying 12.5% of the power delivered steadily at roughly 1280 MW. That cheap, steady, reliable generation was retired in mid-2024 and is no longer available. Current Maximum Capacity – 0 MW
Wind accounted for 11.8% of 2023’s power generated, fluctuating between a 0 and 35% capacity factor. Current Maximum Capacity – 5,340 MW
Solar, hydro and biomass/wood/refuse round out the other main generation sources at just 2.6%, 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively. Current Maximum Capacity – 1,663, 894, and 444 MW, respectively.
Current battery storage capacity on the grid is a rather miniscule 191.6 MW (340.2 MWh). Roughly 1.5 minutes of back up. Meaningless and grossly expensive.
Replacing our current dispatchable generation (primarily with natural gas fired options) will cost Alberta taxpayers trillions with no measurable temperature rise reduction.

How have Alberta’s renewable generation facilities performed? Wind power has dominated the renewable side of Alberta’s power generation industry. Power generated from wind facilities (10.15 GWh) was 4.4 times higher than the power generated by solar facilities (2.30 GWh). Wind’s maximum capacity (5,340 MW) is 3.2 times solar’s maximum capacity (1,663 MW). Alberta’s total 2023 power generation came in at 85.96 GWh. Wind was 11.8% of that total, solar was 2.6%.

The detailed wind picture is erratic and inefficient. Every month has several days with little to no wind generation. The spring/summer months (March through September) are especially prone to low-capacity factors/efficiency, averaging just 24.2% on time. Efficiencies are higher in the fall/winter (October through February), but the 2023 yearly average still came in at just 31.1%. Wind maximum capacity increased by 67.6% in 2023, with an additional capacity add of 10.2% so far this year. Wind capacity has doubled (a 99.7% increase) since the beginning of 2023. Expected wind additions to maximum capacity over the next year are estimated to be 1,160 MW (a 22% increase).

The detailed solar picture is more predictable, but still subject to erratic conditions (clouds, snow, dust, smoke, etc.) and is less efficient than wind. Given that Alberta is in the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere, we have a lot more sun in the summer and significantly less in winter. Solar’s weekly moving average efficiency peaked at 41.2% in July, averaging just 21.5% for the whole year. Solar maximum capacity increased by 44.8% in 2023, with a small additional capacity add of 5.4% so far this year. Solar capacity increased by 52.5% since the beginning of 2023. Expected solar additions to maximum capacity over the next year are estimated to be 3,650 MW (a 219% increase).

Combining solar and wind does little to improve the overall efficiency and power generation is still erratic. The overall profiles are opposite one another. Wind efficiencies are higher in the cooler months and lower in the warmer months, solar efficiencies are obviously higher in the warmer months and lower in the cooler months. That would be convenient for levelling out the power delivery throughout the year, but the wind/solar ratio is high (4.4), allowing wind to dominate the consolidated profile. Consolidated wind/solar efficiencies averaged 28.8%. Note, for 8 moths of the year (March through October) the consolidated wind/solar efficiencies were below 20% for 8 to 10 days per month. That represents a very large back up requirement and adding more wind and solar when the wind is not blowing, and the sun is not shining does not add more power generation. Over the next year, the larger solar adds will drop the wind/solar ratio to 1.2. But there will still be many days (quite often associated with high pressure system heat waves and cold spells when the power is most needed) where the wind and/or solar are just not available.

As mentioned earlier, there has been wind and solar additions during 2023 and 2024. Have those additions increased Alberta’s grid reliability? No! I have included the power distribution summary for October 3^rd, 2024, at 10:27 AM. Natural gas fired options provided 82.2% of the demand (operating at 61.6% of capacity). Solar was contributing 12.2% of the demand (operating at 72.5% of capacity) and wind was effectively MIA, contributing just 1.9% of the demand (at just 3.5% of capacity). That is of course just a moment in time, but if that moment in time were to occur during peak demand periods and lasts more than roughly one and a half minutes (our battery storage back up), we are headed for some serious grid reliability issues. We have already had many emergency alerts over the last year. Adding more wind and solar will not reduce those risks.

The last four slides provide a quick summary of the AESO grid operations by Randy Stubbings, P. Eng. His presentation “Net Zero and the Future Power Grid”, lays out some of the many challenges facing the grid operator (AESO) as more intermittent renewable generation (wind and solar) is added to the grid. That includes both technical (chaotic and unpredictable fluctuations) and economic (higher capital costs and consumer pricing) challenges. The cost to just provide battery backup in a zero emissions grid would in the $2 trillion dollar range. And that does not include the much more significant costs required to replace fossil fuel generation with renewables or carbon capture that would allow some fossil fuel on the grid. He has also summarized some of the longer-term historical data, confirming and adding to some of the points I made regarding wind and solar patterns. His full presentation has been archived on the Friends of Science Society website. The video presentation and the associated PowerPoint slides are linked here. Both well worth viewing!